Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1405-W1008

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1405-W1008

Release Date: July 20, 2021

发布日：2021年7月20日

Topic: Xi Jinping's Road Is Getting Narrower and Narrower -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平的路越走越窄 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

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Xi Jinping's Road Is Getting Narrower and Narrower

-- Wei Jingsheng

In the past few days, the United States announced continued sanctions against officials of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) involved in Hong Kong’s repression; the US Secretary of State Blinken warned Hong Kong’s business environment is deteriorating; and the media analyzed that Hong Kong’s finances might regress quickly and on a large scale because of the so-called National Security Law. All in all, Hong Kong, the Pearl of the Orient, has lost its former glory because of Xi Jinping's misjudgment.

Why had the small sized Hong Kong become an economically prosperous and rapidly developing region? Many people, even people in Hong Kong, think that it is because the so-called vast and deep connection to the so-called motherland. This is actually a misunderstanding, because the different system between Hong Kong and the Mainland China makes Hong Kong's environment to be the same as foreign countries, instead of Mainland China. The well-developed finance and commerce in Hong Kong is mainly due to Hong Kong's relatively free market environment and the freedom of information dissemination that complements it.

The development of modern industry and commerce is inseparable from the operation of the financial sector. The operation of the financial sector is normal or not, depending not only on the judgment of the operators in the financial sector, but also on the judgment of its vast participants. Without free and sufficient information, misjudgments will greatly increase, and the level of normal financial operations will decline. Manipulating the market to obtain huge profits, or harvesting money in the stock market since the era of Zhu Rongji will increase. Abnormal financial operations will affect all economic behavior to be abnormal. The level of economic development will drop to the same level as what is under the Communist system in Mainland China.

Since the Chinese Communist regime took over Hong Kong, Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin still understood that the root Hong Kong was based on its free political system. Therefore, efforts were also made to ensure that Hong Kong's existing free system was maintained. However, since the 1980s, the United States and the West opened their markets to give blood transfusions to the Communist regime and Hong Kong's function as an economic tonic of the Communist regime declined. But to Mainland China with an abnormal economic and political system, the role of this tonic was still not to be underestimated.

Since Mainland China began to experiment and implement a Communist political and economic system in 1950, its economic situation has been very bad. However, with the Chinese people's tradition of being smart and hardworking, coupled with Hong Kong's tonic function, it could still be maintained without collapse, and it even developed slightly. Even in an environment when the Communist regime had been sanctioned by the West on several occasions, it was still possible to import scarce supplies, including weapon parts such as aircraft engines, from Hong Kong, the free middleman. This was an important condition for the Communist regime to maintain its autocratic rule.

Now the rapid development due to the deception created by Deng Xiaoping etc. with the blood transfusion from the West is gone. Economic exploitation and wolf warrior diplomacy caused the awakening of the West and the increasing sanctions by the United States and the West were restored. Domestic growth in China has slowed down, and social conflicts have risen. At this time of domestic and foreign difficulties, the strangled death of Hong Kong, the big tonic medicine, is tantamount to self-castration economically.

Since Xi Jinping came to power, he has implemented a policy of gradually choking Hong Kong to death. The arrest of Jimmy Lai and the forcing of Apple Daily to close its doors were landmark events that ended Hong Kong’s freedom of information. This action shocked international public opinion and gave sufficient reasons to sanction the CCP, and also ruined the last chance to unite Taiwan. Therefore, the United States judged and warned that Hong Kong no longer has the business environment of the past, and investment in Hong Kong has become dangerous.

Xi Jinping doesn't make a living as a eunuch, so why does he want a castration? This is abnormal. My analysis is that for himself, it is because Hong Kong had become a base for spreading scandals about him and his family, yet the Chinese customs were unable to block the spread, so Xi vented his personal anger. Hong Kong has also become a hub for scandals about the major families of the Communist regime, so Xi Jinping is supported by the high level Communist leaders when he vents his private anger. In addition, the Hong Kong people's movement to safeguard the existing system has caused the anger of conservatives within the CCP. The elimination of Hong Kong’s free system does have a base of public opinion within the CCP.

Sun Tzu's Art of War says: You do not fight because of anger. This misconduct by Xi Jinping and the top leaders with the CCP is a major condition for the accelerated collapse of the Communist regime. For sure, there must be some people within the CCP who want to save the collapse, which actually is very easy. As the Jimmy Lai and the Apple Daily case have not yet been tried, change the practice of externally forcing the court, and make the court ruling in accordance with Hong Kong's tradition. This can slightly restore the bad effects, slightly restore the confidence of the Hong Kong people, and slightly retain some freedom of information. Regrettably, the system of the Communist regime is in the hands of a few people, and the interests of the CCP and the China have always been subject to personal will. So both Hong Kong and China are hopeless.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-07192021105248.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2021/WeiJS210718onXiJProad.mp3

(Written on July 17, 2021 and recorded on July 18, 2021. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on July 19, 2021.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1405-W1008

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1405-W1008

Release Date: July 20, 2021

发布日：2021年7月20日

Topic: Xi Jinping's Road Is Getting Narrower and Narrower -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平的路越走越窄 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2021/report2021-7/WeiJS210720onXiJProadA1405-W1008.htm

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习近平的路越走越窄

-- 魏京生

就在这几天，美国宣布继续制裁涉及香港镇压的中共官员；美国国务卿警告香港商业环境恶化；媒体分析香港金融因为所谓的国安法，恐怕会迅速而且大规模地倒退。总而言之，香港这个东方明珠，因为习近平的错误判断，已经人老珠黄，失去了往日的辉煌。

香港为什么会以弹丸之地，成为经济繁荣、发展迅速的地区呢？很多人甚至香港人也认为，是因为有所谓祖国广大内地为纵深。这其实是个误解，因为香港和大陆内地的制度区别，使得香港的环境和外国一样，不是同一个市场。香港金融和商业的发达，主要是因为香港有比较自由的市场环境，和与之配套的信息传播自由。

现代工商业的发展离不开金融业的运营。而金融业的运营是否正常，不仅仅依靠金融业操盘者们的判断，还依靠广大参与者们的判断。没有自由的、充分的信息，错误判断就会大幅度增加，金融正常运营的水平就会下降。操纵市场获取暴利，或者像朱镕基时代开始的股市割韭菜等等行为就会增加。金融运营不正常会影响到所有经济行为不正常。经济发展水平就会下降到和大陆共产党制度下一样的水平。

中共接管香港以来，邓小平和江泽民时代还懂得，香港的根本是自由的政治体制。所以还努力保证维持香港既有的自由体制。虽然从八十年代开始，美国和西方开放市场给共产党输血，香港作为共产党的经济补药的功能下降了。但作为不正常经济政治体制的大陆，这个补药的作用仍然不可小觑。

大陆从1950年开始试验和实行共产主义的政治经济制度，经济状况一直很糟糕。但有中国人民聪明和勤劳的传统，再加上香港的补药功能，尚能维持没有崩溃，还略有发展。甚至在共产党几次遭受西方制裁的环境之下，还能从香港这个自由的中间商进口紧俏物资，包括武器零件，如飞机发动机，等等。这是共产党能维持专制统治的重要条件。

如今邓小平等人靠欺骗创造的，西方输血造成的高速发展没有了。经济剥削和战狼外交，造成西方的觉醒，美国和西方逐步增加的制裁恢复了。国内经济增长放缓了，社会矛盾上升了。当此内外交困之时，困死香港这个大力补药，无异于经济自宫行为。俗话叫做：不作不死。

习近平上台以来实行的是逐步困死香港的政策。逮捕黎智英并迫使苹果日报关门，是关闭香港信息自由的标志性事件。这一事件震惊了国际舆论，给了制裁中共的充分理由，也断送了统战台湾的最后一丝机会。所以美国判断并警告，香港已经没有昔日的经商环境，前往香港投资已经成为危险。

习近平又不想当太监谋生，为什么要自宫呢？这很反常。我分析，他本人是因为香港成为散布他和他的家族丑闻的基地，海关又没能力封锁，于是他就要泄私愤。香港同时成为共产党各大家族丑闻的集散地，所以小习泄私愤在党内高层颇有市场。再加上香港人民维护既有体制的运动，造成党内保守派的愤怒。消灭香港的自由体制，就有了党内舆论基础。

孙子兵法说：将不可因怒而战。小习和党内高层的这个失策，是造成共产党加速崩溃的重大条件。共产党内部肯定有人想挽回败局，其实也很容易。趁现在黎智英和苹果日报案件还没审判，改变强迫法庭的做法，让法院按照香港传统判决，可以稍稍挽回坏影响，稍稍恢复港人信心，稍稍保留一些信息自由。遗憾的是共产党的体制是少数人说了算，党和国家利益从来就得服从个人意志。所以香港和中国都没希望了。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-07192021105248.html