Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1407-W1010

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1407-W1010

Release Date: August, 2021

发布日：2021年8月7日

Topic: More Reflection on China's Natural and Man-made Disasters -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：再谈中国天灾人祸的反思 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

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More Reflection on China's Natural and Man-made Disasters

-- Wei Jingsheng

In the decades since the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) took over the power, natural and man-made disasters have gradually increased. Careful observation reveals that this gradual increase is due to the gradually increasing of human-caused elements. The cold and hot cycles on earth may also be a reason, but the natural occurrence time is not so fast, and the changes in weather are not the root reason for the increase in disasters in China. Man-made disasters are the root cause of the acceleration of disasters in China.

Recently, there have been many complaints about the construction of a large number of substandard reservoirs in China. These reservoirs, especially substandard reservoirs, are clearly an important reason, but how to manage and use these reservoirs or misunderstanding of the basic functions of the reservoirs is a more important reason. Counting down the cases of disasters caused by dam collapses in China, we find a common phenomenon: in order to store high water levels and generate more power, the managing principle of most reservoirs is to close the gates in the dry season to store water, and to release floods in the rainy season to preserve the dam. As a result, the dry season turns the rivers into seasonal rivers, and the rainy season causes floods. The loss of life and property of ordinary Chinese is far greater than the electricity sent out that turned into money.

No one dares to talk about this kind of thing in China. The common Chinese do not understand, while experts and scholars are defending the Chinese officials. A few experts and scholars who talked about the truth were either forced to shut up or flee abroad. As a result, only the downstream countries of the outflowing rivers continue to complain and even protest strongly. Because this management method only cares about the power generation of the reservoir and does not care about the life and death of the people, it greatly endangers the safety of other people's lives and property. Those who defend the Chinese government don't understand anything, yet they claim Chinese sovereignty over all these issues.

The concepts in ancient China and foreign countries were all about water control. Later, it gradually developed to the combination of water control and water conservancy irrigation, which was necessary to develop large countries. Ancient Egypt, the ancient Mesopotamia and the Yellow River basin in China are examples with evidences of water governance and nation-building. For thousands of years, the ability to control water has not only determined the geographical location of the country, but also has been a major national project that all dynasties have not dared to relax.

Since the invention of hydropower, the law has changed. The construction of dams has become a project for capitalists and the state to collect money. Irrigation and disaster prevention have retreated to become the secondary goals of water control, and were not even considered sometimes. That is because the thinking model of capitalists is to divide income by cost and recover the cost as soon as possible. Other things are not in their scope of consideration, and have nothing to do with their interests.

After some floods occurred, the democratic governments began to change their management model, and no longer took power generation as the first goal, or even irrigation as the first goal. They made sure that their first goal is not to cause floods and ecological disasters. Autocratic governments, especially extreme autocratic governments like the Chinese Communist regime, value their own money more than anything else. Of course, the preservation of their political power is a more important goal than money, and the loss of people's lives and property does not matter. Making money fills their pockets, while the losses are left to others. Do they need to be considerate? Private authoritarian countries all think this way.

In 1975, the Wuyang dam and other dams collapsed in Henan Province, which flooded more than a dozen counties, and hundreds of thousands of Chinese died. The Tangshan earthquake in 1976 shook half of China and also killed hundreds of thousands of people. These are typical cases of a Chinese-style disaster, and it is the result of the state's privatization way of thinking. For officials up to the deputy prime minister, the flood release would result the loss of the power generation money for China, and they did not dare to take such a huge responsibility, but needed Deng Xiaoping's approval. Whether it would drown the Chinese people was not even considered. Regrettably, Deng’s card game was more important than answering the phone, and his guards dared not to bother him to get the approval.

The official Chinese count of deaths during the Tangshan earthquake in 1976 was 270,000, with the actual number likely doubled. I heard with my own ears when the National Earthquake Director came to my home to complain to my father in private and said that they had announced a big earthquake to the central government three days in advance, and the time was only a few hours off. Wang Hongwen (the CCP vice-chairman) even ordered the shutdown of power plants to prevent fires from damaging national equipment. However, the central authorities did not communicate it downwards, because they were afraid of shifting the general direction of “the political struggle”. At first, I couldn't believe it. Later, the brother of the girl we adopted from the earthquake disaster found his sister and told me that they had been out of power in the mines and the elevator was out of power, so it took a long time to dig out of the abandoned tunnel. Thus, I believe that the National Earthquake Director was not talking nonsense. This shows that the Communist Party’s mode of thinking is: the life and death of the people is not important, and the most important thing is to protect its power through political struggle.

So people of insight on the Internet are saying: the disasters in China will not end until the end of autocracy.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-08042021110515.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2021/WeiJS210805onChineseDisasters2.mp3

(Written and recorded on August 5, 2021. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on August 6, 2021.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1407-W1010

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1407-W1010

Release Date: August, 2021

发布日：2021年8月7日

Topic: More Reflection on China's Natural and Man-made Disasters -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：再谈中国天灾人祸的反思 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2021/report2021-8/WeiJS210807onChineseDisasters2A1407-W1010.htm

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再谈中国天灾人祸的反思

-- 魏京生

中共执政之后的几十年来，天灾人祸有逐渐加大的趋势。仔细观察发现，这个逐渐加大是人祸的成分在逐渐加大。地球冷热周期变化可能也是一个原因，但是自然发生的时间没有这么快，天气的变化根本不是灾害加大的原因。人祸是灾害加大加快的根本原因。

最近大家对修建大量质量不合格水库的抱怨很多。水库特别是不合格的水库自然是重要原因，但是对水库如何管理使用，或者说对水库基本功能的错误认识，应该是更重要的原因。细数一下垮坝造成灾难的案例，就会发现一个普遍的现象：为了蓄高水位多发电，大多数水库的管理原则都是，旱季下闸蓄水，雨季防灾泄洪。结果就是旱季断流成了季节河，雨季造成水灾。老百姓的生命财产损失，远远大于发出来的那些电钱。

这种事情在国内没人敢说。老百姓不懂，专家学者们都在替官方辩护。少数说实话的专家学者，也被迫闭嘴或者逃到国外。结果只有外流河的下游国家，不断抱怨甚至强烈抗议。因为这种只管水库发电不顾人民死活的管理方式，极大危害了别人的生命财产安全。国内的喷子们什么都不懂，还瞎咧咧什么我家的主权你们管不着。

中国和外国古代的概念都是治水。之后渐渐发展到治水和水利灌溉兼而有之，并因此需要发展出大的国家。古埃及，古代两河流域和中国的黄河流域，就是有证据的治水建国的例子。几千年来，能否治水不但决定了国土的地理位置，而且是历朝历代都不敢放松的重大国家项目。

自从发明了水力发电，规律就变了。建设水坝就成了资本家和国家收钱的项目，灌溉和防灾退居治水的次要目标，甚至不予考虑。因为资本家的思维模式就是收入除以成本，尽快收回成本。此外的事情不在他们的考虑范围，和他们的利益无关。

民主政府在发生了一些水灾之后，开始改变管理模式，不再以发电为第一目标，甚至不以灌溉为第一目标。首先保证不要造成水灾和生态灾难。而专制政府，特别是像中共这样的极端专制政府，把他们自己的钱看得比什么都重要。当然，保政权是比钱更重要的目标，人民的生命财产损失就无所谓了。赚钱是自己的，损失是别人的，需要考虑吗？私人性质的专制国家都是这种思维方式。

1975年的河南舞阳垮坝，淹了十几个县，死了几十万人。1976年的唐山大地震，震动了半个中国，死了几十万人。这就是中国式灾难的典型案例，是国家私有化的思维方式的结果。对直至副总理的官员们来说，泄洪损失了国家发电的钱，滋事体大不敢负责，要邓小平批准才行。是否会淹死老百姓，他们根本没考虑。遗憾的是邓家的牌局比接电话重要，警卫们不敢打扰。

1976年唐山地震，官方说死亡二十七万，实际可能翻倍。我亲耳听见国家地震局长，来我家私下里向我父亲诉苦说，他们提前三天向中央预告了大地震，时间只差几小时。王洪文甚至下令关闭发电厂，防止火灾烧坏了国家设备。但中央就是不向下传达，理由是怕转移了斗争大方向。开始我还不敢相信，后来我们收养的震灾少女的哥哥找到了她妹妹，告诉我说他们在矿井下早就停了电，升降机没电，所以过了很久才从废弃巷道里挖出来。我这才相信地震局长没有胡说。由此可见共产党的思维模式就是：人民的死活不重要，政治斗争保权力最重要。

所以网上的有识之士都在说：专制不灭，灾难不止。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-08042021110515.html