Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1445-W1045

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1445-W1045

Release Date: January 26, 2022

发布日：2022年1月26日

Topic: Does Xi Jinping Have a Chance to Take Advantage of the Ukraine Crisis? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平有机会利用乌克兰危机吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Does Xi Jinping Have a Chance to Take Advantage of the Ukraine Crisis?

-- Wei Jingsheng

The Ukrainian crisis is in full swing. The difference between the statements of President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken, and the firm attitude of President Putin, have caused a lot of speculation in international public opinion. Among them, Asian media experts generally speculate whether Xi Jinping will use this opportunity to attack Taiwan, or use this opportunity to escalate the threat against Taiwan with force. This is a guess based on the CCP's apparent hard-line attitude.

Since the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, U.S. adversaries have generally viewed the U.S. negatively, believing that the U.S. has entered a period of weakness. This is a misunderstanding. The United States has always focused on policies of negotiation and avoiding war as much as possible. So it is often misunderstood by those militants as the USA being weak and therefore refusing to settle disputes peacefully. Once the United States is pressed, the consequences are generally more serious. Putin is cunning and he understands this very well. He is just setting up a sky-high price and waiting for the best opportunity to bargain.

Would Putin be foolish enough to think he was a compatible adversary of the United States and the European Union, even if a war starts? Based on years of observation, Putin is not as stupid as Xi Jinping. He will not really be fooled by the angry patriotic youths in his own country and think that Russia is the most powerful country in the world because “the east rises while the west falls”. It's just that the annexation of Crimea gave him courage, hoping to take advantage when the US's attention is attracted by China and Europe making trouble with the US, to scare people and using this opportunity to threaten the others and get more benefit from it. He does not want to help China to attract the attention of the United States and make wedding clothes for others.

As can be seen from the above analysis, this Ukraine crisis will not be protracted. Besides, the logistical expenses for the deployment of troops on the Ukrainian border are also a huge burden. After getting some specific benefits, the “crisis” will die down and Putin will turn back to domestic affairs. That's what keeps Putin in power. Don’t even think about a limited war for eastern Ukraine. Ukraine cannot accept it, nor will the United States and Europe. After all, the historical legitimacy of Crimea is insufficient, and everyone had to endure it. But now it is impossible to accept Putin's occupation of Ukraine.

After this talk of Putin, we should come back and talk about the Secretary-General Xi of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Comrade Xi Jinping's internal and external difficulties are becoming more and more obvious. Under the circumstances of excessive internal pressure, it is not just a question of him becoming the emperor during the 20th National Congress of the CCP, but a question of whether he can be overthrown. There were very bullish people such as Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping who had to launch wars to resolve internal conflicts when they were in similar situations. This has been the routine practice of monarchs of last resort since ancient times. Xi Jinping is not stupid enough to not understand this trick. Now the speculation that he will use the Ukraine crisis to use force against Taiwan may not be groundless.

Can he do this? The opportunity is not good, with no preparation in advance. No one had expected Putin to make trouble at this time, and Putin is not so close to Xi to discuss this with him in advance. It can also be viewed from this incident that the so-called Sino-Russian alliance was actually played by Putin to fool Xi Jinping. Xi acted to embolden Putin for free. He also became a backstage hand for Putin for free, and endorsed Putin for free. Xi was solidly fooled by a swindler.

If Xi is so stupid that he really wants to be benefitted by it -- i.e. take the opportunity of the Ukraine crisis to use force against Taiwan, even just limited use of force to occupy small places such as Penghu and Dongsha -- it will cause international panic and resolute counterattacks. The CCP's military is very strong, and Taiwan will definitely not be able to resist it. However, the combined strength of the United States, Japan and Taiwan is far stronger than that of the CCP. The US and Japan did not dare to be tough in public, because they are limited by the public opinion of the people, and they have to show their willingness for peace. But once the public opinion saw the wolf's ambition and stopped insisting on peace, the waiting military would see its good opportunity to eliminate this old enemy in one strike.

Although Xi Jinping has just promoted a lot of generals, even if all of them are incompetent flatterers, there should still be a few sensible people not promoted by him. Even if they were powerless to stop Xi's reckless risk-taking, what would be the result when the war had begun? That would be the United States and Japan united to defeat the Communist army, eliminate its navy, and then block traffic on the ocean. This will be like the Jinmen Battle years ago when the whole army was wiped out. The difference from the Jinmen Battle would be the economic collapse in China. That would be a great opportunity for Putin to extort money, sell things at a higher price and ask for some territory by the way, etc. Just as in the late Qing Dynasty.

Russia has been accustomed to doing this for two hundred years. Do you think Putin does not understand history and is as stupid as Xi?

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-01242022081905.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2022/WeiJS220123onUkraineCrisis.mp3

(Written on January 21, 2022; recorded on January 23, 2022. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on January 24, 2022.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1445-W1045

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1445-W1045

Release Date: January 26, 2022

发布日：2022年1月26日

Topic: Does Xi Jinping Have a Chance to Take Advantage of the Ukraine Crisis? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平有机会利用乌克兰危机吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2022/report2022-1/WeiJS220126onUkraineCrisisA1445-W1045.htm

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习近平有机会利用乌克兰危机吗？

-- 魏京生

乌克兰危机闹得沸沸扬扬。拜登总统和布林肯国务卿表态的差异，和普京总统坚定的态度，造成了国际舆论很多猜测。其中亚洲媒体专家们普遍猜测，习近平会不会利用这个机会攻打台湾，或者利用这个机会升级对台湾的武力威胁。这是从中共的表面强硬态度出发的猜测。

从阿富汗撤军以来，美国的对手普遍看衰美国，认为美国已经进入了软弱期。这是一种误解。美国一向都是以谈判为主，尽量避免战争的政策。所以经常被那些好战分子误解，以为它软弱并因此拒绝和平解决纠纷。一旦把美国逼急了，后果一般都比较严重。普京老奸巨猾，很懂这一点，他不过是在漫天要价，等待最好的机会就地还钱。

就算真打起来，普京会傻到以为他是美国和欧洲联盟的对手吗？根据多年的观察，他不像习近平那样傻。他不会真的被本国的愤青们忽悠，以为什么东升西降，以为自己天下第一强国了。只不过吞并克里米亚给他壮了胆，希望利用美国注意力被中国吸引，欧洲正在和美国闹情绪的机会，吓唬一下人，多捞点儿好处。他可不想帮助中国吸引美国的注意力，为他人做嫁衣裳。

从以上的分析可以看出，这场乌克兰危机不会旷日持久。再说屯兵乌克兰边境的后勤经费，也是一笔巨大的负担。得到一些具体的好处以后，就会偃旗息鼓，回过头来关注国内事务了。这才是他继续执政的本钱。至于有限战争夺取乌克兰东部，想也不要想。乌克兰不能接受，美国和欧洲也不能接受。毕竟克里米亚的历史合法性不足，大家忍也就忍了。现在不可能接受普京占领乌克兰。

说完普京该回来说说咱们的小习书记了。小习同志内外交困越来越明显，内部压力超大的情况下，已经不仅仅是二十大当皇帝的问题，而是能不能被推翻的问题了。牛气很大如毛泽东、邓小平，遇到类似情况还要发动战争来解决内部矛盾。这是自古以来不得已的君主们的常规做法。习近平还没傻到不懂这一招。现在关于他会利用乌克兰危机，对台动武的猜测，可能还真不是空穴来风。

他能这样做吗？首先是机会不好，事先没准备。谁也不会预料到普京这个时间搞事，人家普京也没和他有亲密到事先和小习商量。从这件事也可以看出所谓的中俄联盟，实际上是小习被人家普京给玩了。免费给普京壮了个胆儿，免费给普京当了一回后台，背书了一次。这个冤大头当的够瓷实的。

如果小习傻到真的想从中捞一把，利用乌克兰危机的机会对台湾动武，哪怕是有限动武，占领澎湖、东沙这种小地方，也会引起国际恐慌，并予以坚决回击。中共的军力很强，台湾肯定抵挡不住。但美、日、台联合的力量，却远远强于中共。美日不敢公开强硬，是受人民舆论的限制，要表现出和平的意愿。一旦舆论看出了狼子野心，不再强求和平，军队们就等到了好机会，一举消灭这个宿敌。

虽然习近平刚刚提升了不少将军，就算个个都是无能之辈马屁精，总还是有不是他提拔的几个懂事的人吧。即使他们无力阻止习近平鲁莽冒险，但战争开打了，是什么结果呢？那就是美日联合击败共军，消灭它的海军，然后封锁海上交通。这就会象当年的金门战斗一样，全军覆没。和金门战役不同的是经济崩溃，那时候真的就给了普京一个好机会，趁机敲诈勒索，抬价卖东西顺便要一些领土啊，等额外的条件。就像清朝末年一样。

俄罗斯两百年来干这个早就习惯了，你以为普京就不懂历史，像小习一样傻吗？

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-01242022081905.html