Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1456-W1054

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1456-W1054

Release Date: March 9, 2022

发布日：2022年3月9日

Topic: What Can Xi Jinping Gain from the Ukraine War? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平从乌克兰战争中能得到什么? -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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What Can Xi Jinping Gain from the Ukraine War?

-- Wei Jingsheng

Hua Qianfang and Zhou Daiyu are out of date already. There are talented people in the country. Inside China, flattery literati are rejoicing, claiming that Russia’s war against the West will inevitably win, and then it would be a big victory for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This would make Xi Jinping and his followers so excited as to lose their orientations. Then let's help these teammates with pigs’ intelligence to see how they and their master Xi can be profited from this war.

Can Russia win? Even Putin doesn't think he will win now. Otherwise, he wouldn't be negotiating on one hand and wielding a nuclear stick to scare people on the other. What he's hoping for now is a slightly more respectable end, while only the sycophants in China are assuming he'll win. If Putin wins, what benefits will Xi Jinping gain? The fancy presumptions of these sycophants surely will not be realized. So what could be achieved?

After Putin won, his confidence would soar, and he will be no longer need the support of his little brother. But Putin is more in need of getting money from his inferior little brother. The thousands of kilometers long Siberian highway is an important tool to control the little brother and he must make the little brother continue the payments to build it. The oil pipeline through Outer Mongolia is a tool for proxy economic warfare, and the little brother must pay to get it built as well. The devaluation of the ruble will continue, and the little brother must support with money. The Ukrainian economy will need to be rebuilt, and it must be supported by the money from the little brother. In short, the little brother's wallet is Putin's wallet, and he will be sanctioned together by being tied to Putin. Cry, cry, and cry! When the time comes, Xi will not cry by himself, but take all the Chinese people to cry with him together, as they become slaves to Putin and return to the miseries overnight.

Fortunately, Putin won't win. At the best, Putin could win a somewhat decent withdrawal by relying on the weakness of the United States and the West. After the withdrawal of his troops, Russia must bear the consequences of the war, the economy will be stagnant, and the people's grievances will be boiling. If Russia wants to survive, it must beg the West for forgiveness and China for assistance. The West must help Ukraine rebuild, and there will be no room left to help Russia. So Russia can only beg China for help. What reciprocal conditions can China demand while sacrificing a lot of money?

The first is to demand the return of the territories occupied by the unequal treaties (with Russia). This has been the heartache of the Chinese people for more than a century. When Russia has a hard time to maintain itself and cannot continue to maintain a large empire of thousands of kilometers, it is a very realistic choice to trade territory for survival. That's how China's millions of square kilometers of territory were exchanged back then, so it would be just right and proper to return it now. Though it will cost some money no life would be lost.

With the servile mentality of Xi's worship of Russia as the "fighting nation" for many years, does he dare? Even without the nuclear threat to frighten him, Xi would not dare. Even when Putin softens himself toward the West, it does not mean that he would be soft toward his little brother. Otherwise, he could not continue. Even Russia after Putin has stepped down will not readily agree and will need to save its face for being dominated under the afterglow fantasy of a great power. Outer Mongolia and North Korea will also mourn together and help Russia. This is enough to frighten the little comrade Xi. The United States and the West will snicker quietly, by sitting on the top of the hill and watching the tigers fight, while waiting to take advantage and benefits from.

So will China have just missed this opportunity? It may not have to. There definitely will be no chance if Xi Jinping to be re-elected at the 20th National Congress of the CCP. This is the Chinese-style cowardly politics with no one daring to stand up. Unless everyone is determined to drive the Russia followers, Xi's fraction, out of power, then China's slave mentality towards Russia may be turned around. China could deal with Russia in the predicament of defeat, with an attitude of being a financial master and a big country. Without bullying others, it can legitimately and reasonably demand the return of the occupied territories. It may be even be more generous, by helping Russia financially under other names and thus maintain a friendly neighbor.

This is also the best option for Russia. If Putin does not step down, or Putin II takes office, then only a Chinese government that is not Russia’s little brother will take countermeasures. Only a China which is not under Xi’s leadership, may not be afraid of sick cat Russia. Is there any man within the CCP who does not want to be the little brother to Russia? I doubt it.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-03082022100023.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2022/WeiJS220307onXiJPandRussia.mp3

(Written and recorded on March 7, 2022. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on March 8, 2022.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1456-W1054

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1456-W1054

Release Date: March 9, 2022

发布日：2022年3月9日

Topic: What Can Xi Jinping Gain from the Ukraine War? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平从乌克兰战争中能得到什么? -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2022/report2022-3/WeiJS220309onXiJPandRussiaA1456-W1054.htm

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习近平从乌克兰战争中能得到什么?

-- 魏京生

花千芳和周带鱼过时了。江山代有才人出，国内马屁文人又在自嗨，说是俄罗斯这场和西方对抗的战争必然会赢，然后就是中共的什么大胜云云。估计会让习近平和他的大小粉红们亢奋不止，找不着东南西北。那我们就帮这些猪队友们看看，他们和他们的主子习大大，究竟能从这场战争中发什么财吧。

俄罗斯能赢吗？连普京现在都不认为他会赢。否则他不会又是要谈判，又是挥舞核大棒来吓唬人。他现在希望的是稍微体面一点儿收场，只有中国的马屁精假设他会赢。如果他赢了，习近平能得到什么好处呢？马屁精们的花里胡哨的一大堆假设，肯定不能实现。那么能实现的是什么呢？

普京赢了之后信心大涨，不再需要小兄弟的支持了。但他更需要从低三下四的小兄弟那里拿钱。几千公里的西伯利亚高速路，是控制小兄弟的重要工具，必须让小兄弟出钱继续修。通过外蒙古的石油管道，是打代理人经济战的工具，必须让小兄弟出钱修。卢布贬值会继续，必须让小兄弟出钱支撑。乌克兰经济要重建，必须让小兄弟出钱支撑。总之，小兄弟的钱包就是普京的钱包，而且还要和普京捆绑在一起受制裁。哭啊哭，到时候不是小习自己哭，而是全中国人民一起哭，一起给普京当奴隶，一夜回到解放前。

幸好普京不会赢，他最多依靠美国和西方的软弱，赢得一个稍微体面那点儿的撤军。撤军之后的俄罗斯必须承担战争的后果，经济凋敝，民怨沸腾，要想让俄罗斯活下去，就必须哀求西方的谅解，就必须请求中国的援助。西方必须帮助乌克兰重建，没有余力帮助俄罗斯。所以她就只能哀求中国的援助了。中国在牺牲了大把金钱的同时，可以要求什么对等的条件呢？

首先就是要求归还不平等条约所侵占的领土，这是中国人民一百多年来的心病。俄罗斯日子过不下去了，没能力继续维持几千公里的大帝国，以领土换生存是一个很现实的选择。当年中国的几百万平方公里领土，就是这样换出去的，现在还回来天经地义。而且还花了钱没死人。

以小习多年崇拜“战斗民族”的奴才心态，他敢吗？不用挥舞核大棒吓唬，他也不敢。普京对西方服软了，并不等于对小兄弟也要服软。否则真的没法混了。哪怕就是普京下台了的俄罗斯，在大国余辉幻想的支配下，肯定也要摆摆架子，顾一会儿面子，不会痛痛快快答应。外蒙古和朝鲜也会兔死狐悲，帮助俄罗斯摇旗呐喊。这就足以吓坏了色厉内荏的小习同志。美国和西方则会偷着笑，坐山观虎斗，等着收取渔人之利。

那么中国只有错过这个机会了？不一定。如果小习二十大连任，肯定没有这个机会了，这就是更无一人是男儿的中国式懦夫政治。除非大家下决心把黄俄习家军赶下台，中国对俄罗斯的奴仆心态才能扭转过来。中国以金主加大国的姿态对付战败困境中的俄罗斯，不用欺负人，就可以正当合理地要求归还被占领的领土。宽容一些，还可以用其它名义金援俄罗斯，维持一个友好的邻居。

这对俄罗斯也是最好的选择。如果普京没下台，或者普二世代替普京上台，继续下去，那就只有不是黄俄的中国政府采取反制措施了。只有不是小习的中国能够不怕病猫俄罗斯，共产党里有不是俄罗斯小兄弟的男儿吗？我怀疑。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-03082022100023.html