Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1460-W1058

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1460-W1058

Release Date: March 20, 2022

发布日：2022年3月20日

Topic: What Does the Ukraine War Teach Taiwan? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：乌克兰战争给台湾什么启示? -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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What Does the Ukraine War Teach Taiwan?

-- Wei Jingsheng

Russia has already lost its war against Ukraine. The resolute resistance of the Ukrainian people is beyond the expectations of the United States and Russia, which has plunged Putin's army into the quagmire of a protracted war. Heavier Western sanctions have left Putin unable to support a protracted war. Under the stalemate, whether Ukraine gets a decent victory or Putin gets a decent withdrawal is the focus of the current dispute between the two sides. But Ukraine is clearly in an advantageous position with the continued support of the international community. Putin and his leadership are having a headache now.

The news media are madly talking about how Xi Jinping will take advantage of the turbulent situation in Europe caused by Putin to take Taiwan in one step this autumn and create a favored condition for his re-election as Secretary-General of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Especially it is a great benefit for the ambitious Xi Jinping, as Xi sees that the United States is unwilling to send troops to rescue Ukraine. Without the United States sending troops, Xi thinks the weak character of the Taiwanese makes him quite sure to be able to take over Taiwan in one step. He wants to bet that the United States will misjudge the situation as in this Ukraine crisis, then the biggest obstacle to winning Taiwan will be gone, and he can finally bet correctly.

In fact, this time, Secretary-General Xi is wrong again. Both parties in the United States have sent heavyweight politicians to Taiwan to soothe and encourage the morale of the Taiwanese people, and have repeatedly stated that they will not relax the string of Asia-Pacific strategy despite the war in Europe. Indeed, under the current geographical situation, the ability of the United States to fight a land battle and a naval battle is more than enough; especially now that Ukraine can resolve Putin's aggression on its own without the need for the US to join the war. Xi Jinping’s pro-Russian strategy is constrained by Western sanctions and he is powerless to help Russia win. The plan to take over Taiwan has little chance of success.

The Ukrainian war exposed Russia as a paper tiger. The biggest reason for the failure of the Russian army is its corruption. Its society is corrupt and so is its army. This greatly reduced the overall strength of Russia, and finally it is losing a war against the smaller country of Ukraine. China is no longer what it was during the Kuomintang-Communist civil war and the Korean War. Decades have passed with a lot of changes. The level of corruption of the Communist regime exceeds that of the Kuomintang more than seventy years ago. The CCP to Taiwan will be just like Russia to Ukraine, which will expose the paper tiger as soon as a war begins. Even if the United States does not participate in the war, the CCP Secretary-General Xi has little chance of winning.

Ukraine had little preparation before the war. It was unprepared psychologically and militarily, with little and poor weaponry, which made it look like it was not an opponent against Russia at all. It has the same sort of language and the same ethnic background, thus having the best conditions for annexation. However, both language and ethnic background are no longer reasons for aggression. Thus the invasion was strongly resisted by the Ukrainian people, and it was also opposed and criticized by countries all over the world. It was with this support and help that the Ukrainian people defeated the seemingly powerful invaders. Xi Jinping wants to attack Taiwan, and he is facing the exact same situation. It looks like the result will be the same as well.

The biggest difference between Taiwan and Ukraine is that Taiwan has had good military preparations since the Chiang Kai-shek era. The quality of its weapons and equipment is better than that of the Communist Army, as it has a great advantage over the Soviet-Russian-style equipment of the Communist Army, and the quantity is still sufficient. There will not be a big loss in the initial battle as in Ukraine. Instead, it is possible to be invincible, as Israel was against the mighty Arab army, and soon push the battlefield into enemy’s land.

However, currently there is no such possibility. That is because Taiwan's biggest weakness is that it doesn't have the mental preparation of Israel and the fighting spirit of Ukraine. More than 20 years ago, I criticized Taiwan for being like the Southern Song Dynasty in China, and the situation has worsened in the past 20 years. Thinking that the United States will help them fight against the Communist regime, this Taiwanese psychology makes its society and the army to be worse than the Southern Song Dynasty. It is even following Western fashion and is about to abolish its mandatory military service system. The whole society has no awareness of defending itself. When the United States lets it go as it did with Ukraine, Taiwan will choose a chief executive to surrender to the Communist regime in Mainland China.

The people of Taiwan have realized their weakness through this Ukrainian war. The resumption of mandatory military service is still under discussion, while the work of enhancing reserve training is in progress, and the search for more weapons and equipment from abroad is also in progress. But if Xi Jinping suddenly launches a war for his re-election with his foolish spirit, will Taiwan still have time for its step-by-step work which is just a showcase to its voters? This is Xi Jinping's only chance of winning.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-03182022100118.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2022/WeiJS220317onUkraineTaiwan.mp3

(Written and recorded on March 17, 2022. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on March 18, 2022.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1460-W1058

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1460-W1058

Release Date: March 20, 2022

发布日：2022年3月20日

Topic: What Does the Ukraine War Teach Taiwan? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：乌克兰战争给台湾什么启示? -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2022/report2022-3/WeiJS220320onUkraineTaiwanA1460-W1058.htm

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乌克兰战争给台湾什么启示?

-- 魏京生

乌克兰战争，俄罗斯已经输定了。乌克兰人民的坚决抵抗，出乎美国和俄罗斯的预料，使得普京的军队陷入了持久战的泥潭。西方不断加重的制裁使得普京无力支撑一场持久战。僵持之下是乌克兰得到体面的胜利，还是普京得到比较体面的撤军，是目前双方争执的焦点。但乌克兰在得到国际持续加大的支持下，显然处于优势地位。头疼的是普京和他的领导集团。

媒体都在疯传习近平要趁普京搅乱欧洲局势的时机，在今年秋季一举拿下台湾，为他的连任创造条件。尤其是看到美国不愿意出兵解救乌克兰，对野心勃勃的习近平来说是大大的利好。他以为没有美国出兵，以台湾人的软弱性格，一举拿下台湾还是很有把握的。他要赌美国会和这次乌克兰危机一样错判形势，那么拿下台湾的最大障碍就没有了，终于可以赌对一次了。

其实这次小习书记又错了。美国两党都派出重量级政治家前往台湾，安抚鼓励台湾人民的士气，也一再声明不会因为欧洲的战局放松亚太战略这根弦。确实，在现在的地理形势下，分别打一场陆战和海战，美国的能力绰绰有余。特别是现在不需要美国参战，乌克兰自己就能解决普京的侵略。习近平支持俄罗斯的战略又受到西方制裁的约束，无力帮助俄罗斯取胜。打台湾的计划几乎没有胜算。

乌克兰战争戳穿了俄罗斯这个纸老虎。俄军失败的最大原因是它的腐败。社会腐败，军队也腐败。使得俄国整体实力大大下降，最终败给了小国乌克兰。中国也已经不是国共战争和朝鲜战争的情况了。三十年河东转河西，其腐败水平超过了七十年前的国民党。面对台湾，就像俄罗斯面对乌克兰一样，一开战就会把纸老虎暴露无遗。即使美国不参战，小习书记也没多少胜算。

乌克兰在战前没有多少准备。心理上和军事上都没有准备，武器装备既少又差，看上去根本就不是俄罗斯的对手。又是同文同种，具备了被吞并的最好条件。可是同文同种早就不是侵略的理由了，所以遭到乌克兰人民的强烈反抗，也遭到全世界各国的反对和批评。乌克兰人民就是在这种支持和帮助下战胜了貌似强大的侵略者。习近平要打台湾，面临的是完全相同的局面。看来结果也会相同。

台湾和乌克兰的最大不同，就是从两蒋时代就有很好的军事准备。其武器装备的质量高于共军，对共军的苏俄式的装备具有很大的优势，数量也还算充足。不会像乌克兰那样初战大大失利。倒是有可能像以色列对抗强大的阿拉伯军队那样，立于不败之地，很快就把战场推向敌人的土地上。

但是目前没有这种可能。因为台湾最大的软肋，就是没有以色列那样的心理准备，和乌克兰那样的斗志。二十多年前我就批评台湾像南宋一样，二十年来情况更加恶化了。自以为美国会帮助他们打仗对付共产党，依赖心理使得社会和军队都比南宋还南宋。甚至学西方的时髦，连兵役制都快要取消了。全社会都没有保卫自己的意识，到时候美国像对乌克兰一样撒手，台湾就等着选一位特首后投降吧。

台湾人民通过乌克兰战争已经意识到自己的弱点了。恢复兵役制还在讨论的阶段，增强预备役训练的工作正在开展，向国外寻求更多武器装备也在进行中。但是如果习近平为了他的连任，发扬二百五精神突然发动战争，你们那个应付选民的，按部就班的工作还来得及吗？这是习近平唯一的胜算。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-03182022100118.html