Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1461-W1059

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1461-W1059

Release Date: March 29, 2022

发布日：2022年3月29日

Topic: New Developments Across the Taiwan Strait After the Ukrainian War -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：乌克兰战争后台海局势的新发展 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

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New Developments Across the Taiwan Strait After the Ukrainian War

-- Wei Jingsheng

The latest data from public opinion polls in Taiwan show that the number of people who believe that the United States will help defend Taiwan has dropped sharply, while the number of people who believe that Japan will help defend Taiwan has risen sharply. The number of people who believe that Taiwan can stand alone against the Chinese Communist army has also dropped significantly. These are similar mistakes as judging the situation in Ukraine before the war: focusing on scientific and technological data rather than public morale. However, the unexpected situation from the Russian-Ukrainian war is exactly the result from ancient military thought that people's morale are more important than weapons and equipment.

Why has Xi Jinping's forced reunification of Taiwan been on the rise in recent years? First of all, it is not that his weapons and equipment quick surpassed Taiwan, but that the passive situation is reversed in terms of the morale of the people brought about by the control of public opinion. Controlling propaganda has always been the main tool used by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), but why had reunification by force been ridiculed in the past? It is because the credibility of the Chinese Communist Party is declining and anti-Communist sentiment is rising. Even among the public opinion of the high-level CCP leaders, there were many openly opposed, or did not support CCP’s unification by force. This is the main reason for the policy restriction during the Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin eras and the promotion of peaceful reunification.

How did Xi Jinping reverse public opinion? With his characteristic of being good at infighting but not good at governing the country, he does not have this ability. It was the wrong policies of the two political parties in Taiwan that led to a decline in the patience of peaceful reunification and an increase in public opinion for reunification by force by the people in Mainland China. The Kuomintang's pro-Communist policy has worn away the patience of the mainland people: since they are all about to surrender, why wait any longer? The DPP's de-sinicization policy, especially the insulting and irritating remarks made by people and the media in extreme dark green color (i.e. these who support Taiwan’s independence) to the mainland Chinese that have been amplified by the CCP media, which has promoted the upsurge of the mainland Chinese people's sentiments for reunification by force.

After being described by dark green people as low-level Chinese people, many Chinese who did not support reunification by force in the past, would also say angrily: If this is the case, there is no negotiation but to strike them. This is an important reason for the turning upside-down of public opinion. The characteristic of relying on outsiders to fight infighting is also one of the bad roots of Chinese culture, which was well demonstrated by these people in dark green. How could the others view you highly? This is like the sick patient who desperately searches for cure without evaluation of the doctors.

If Taiwan wants to be able to resist the aggression of major powers in the way of Ukraine, it cannot lie under the protection of foreign countries as it is now. To put it a bit harsher, others have long been afraid of being relied on in an unreasonable way by Taiwanese. I have heard this kind of talk both privately and publicly in the United States. This is why many Americans insist on policy ambiguity on the issue of Taiwan. Americans believe that God only helps those who dare to help themselves. With the mentality that most Taiwanese expect to rely on Japan if they could not rely on the United States, God will not help you.

Fortunately, the Tsai Ing-wen government has realized that it is necessary to self-help first before getting help from others, and is strengthening armaments and training reservists. But things don't seem to be going well. The reason is that the Taiwanese people still rely too heavily on others psychologically and lack a sense of resistance. This is the number one big problem that needs to be solved urgently. If the Tsai government is really responsible to the people of Taiwan, it must first go all out to mobilize public opinion against the Mainland China's aggression, reduce the public opinion of infighting, and reduce the false propaganda that Mainland China dares not do so and so.

Why does Russia dare to risk the public opinion of the world to invade Ukraine militarily? It is because most Russians support it. Now Xi Jinping has long seen more support from the Mainland Chinese, and has long since eliminated high-level military officers who opposed the reunification by force, such as General Liu Yazhou and others. This is in preparation for military reunification. Xi is smarter than the Taiwanese, and he knows that public opinion is the basic condition for political and military victory or defeat. Even Xi’s Internet Army disguised as people for Taiwan’s independence to provoke hatred between the people on two sides of the Taiwan Strait. But deep green people for Taiwan independence are helping them, which is very regrettable.

What can Xi Jinping learn from Putin's example? I do not know. Many people are used to evaluating others by measuring themselves, thinking that Xi Jinping will make decisions according to normal people's thinking. This is a misunderstanding. At least Xi has not seen Putin’s failure, at least he has seen that the West will only impose sanctions that have not hurt Putin’s bones yet. How Xi and his gang of mentally handicapped staff will choose is not predictable. I hope that Taiwan can change its strategy as soon as possible, by helping itself and thus help from the gods, thus it can protect the example of democracy for the Chinese people.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-03282022100555.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2022/WeiJS220326onTaiwanUkraine.mp3

(Written on March 25 and recorded on March 26, 2022. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on March 28, 2022.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1461-W1059

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1461-W1059

Release Date: March 29, 2022

发布日：2022年3月29日

Topic: New Developments Across the Taiwan Strait After the Ukrainian War -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：乌克兰战争后台海局势的新发展 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2022/report2022-3/WeiJS220329onTaiwanUkraineA1461-W1059.htm

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乌克兰战争后台海局势的新发展

-- 魏京生

台湾民意调查机构最新数据显示：认为美国会协防台湾的人数剧烈下滑，认为日本会协防台湾的人数大幅度上升，认为台湾可以单独抵抗共军的人数也大幅度下降。这和战前判断乌克兰局势犯了同等的错误：重科技数据而不看民心士气。俄乌战争的意外，正是古代军事思想里，民心士气胜于武器装备的结果。

习近平为什么近年来武统的态势在上升呢？首先并不是武器装备迅速压倒了台湾，而是在控制舆论带来的民心士气上，颠倒了被动局面。控制宣传是中国共产党历来使用的主要工具，但是过去为什么武统论遭到了嘲笑呢？是因为中国共产党的信用在下降，反共的情绪在上升。就连高层内的舆论，也有不少公开反对武统，或者不支持武统。这是制约邓小平、江泽民时代的政策，推出和统论的主要原因。

习近平是怎样颠倒了舆论呢？以他善于内斗而不善于治国的特点，他没这个能力。是台湾两党的错误政策，导致了大陆人民和统的耐心下降，武统的舆论增强。国民党的亲共政策，消磨了大陆人民和统的耐心：既然他们都要投降了，何必再等呢？民进党的去中国化政策，特别是一些深绿人士和媒体，对大陆人民的侮辱和刺激性言论，被共产党媒体放大传播，推动了大陆人民中武统情绪的高涨。

很多过去不支持武统的人，被深绿人士说成低等支那人之后，也会愤怒地说：既然这样，就打没商量。这就是舆论颠倒的重要原因。依靠外人内斗的特征也是中国文化的劣根性之一，深绿们表演得淋漓尽致，怎么能让人看得起？真是有病乱投医。

台湾要想像乌克兰那样能抵抗大国的侵略，就不能像现在这样躺在外国的保护之下。说难听点儿，别人从很早就怕被台湾人给赖上，我在美国私下里和公开都听见过这种议论。这也是很多美国人坚持政策模糊论的原因。美国人相信：上帝只帮助那些敢于帮助自己的人。以多数台湾人赖不上美国赖日本的心态，上帝都不会帮助你。

好在蔡英文政府已经意识到，必须自助才能够得到别人的帮助，正在加强军备和训练预备役军人。但进展好像不怎么顺利。原因就是台湾大众还是依赖心理太重，反抗心理缺失。这是第一大问题，亟待解决。蔡政府如果真对台湾人民负责，首先就要全力以赴，动员对抗大陆侵略的舆论，减少内斗的舆论，减少大陆不敢如何的虚假宣传。

俄罗斯为什么敢于冒天下之大不讳，军事侵略乌克兰？就是因为大部分俄罗斯人支持。现在习近平早就看到了更多的大陆人民支持，而且早就消灭了高层反对武统的军人，例如刘亚洲将军等人。这就是在为武统做准备。他倒是比台湾人聪明，知道人心向背是政治军事胜败的基本条件。甚至他的五毛网军，都伪装成台独分子来挑拨两岸人民的仇视情绪。可深绿台独却在帮助他们，令人十分遗憾。

习近平以普京为榜样，能学到什么呢？不知道。很多人习惯以己度人，以为习近平会按正常人的思维做决定。这就进入了误区。至少他现在还没看到普京失败，至少他已经看到了西方只会制裁，而且没伤筋动骨。他和他的那帮弱智的参谋们会如何选择，不是能够预测的。祝愿台湾能尽快转变策略，自助天助保住中国人的一片民主的榜样。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来有关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-03282022100555.html