Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1464-W1062

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1464-W1062

Release Date: April 11, 2022

发布日：2022年4月11日

Topic: The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Situation in Asia -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：俄乌战争对亚洲局势的影响 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Situation in Asia

-- Wei Jingsheng

The growing discussion of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the situation in Asia has focused increasingly on the possibility of Communist China's armed reunification with Taiwan. Most of the optimistic views have the false premise that Russia has lost, and Ukraine will have defeated Russia relying on rudimentary weapons. This kind of optimistic public opinion, rather than helping the Ukrainian people, actually relaxes the resolve of the people of the West to support Ukraine and increases the resistance within Ukraine to wrestle with the Russian army. I think Putin saw this as a favorable situation and withdrew his troops from around Kiev. It both indulges the blind optimism of international public opinion and allows Putin to adjust tactics and concentrate his forces on completely taking over the two eastern states of Ukraine and the coastal region.

Insightful people in military circles have already warned that the war could continue for months or even years, or even expand beyond Ukraine. Zelensky already felt unable to carry on, but was overruled by the heroic Ukrainian military and people. Putin's negotiating terms, on the other hand, have not taken one step backward, and he is secretly laughing.

I guess Xi Jinping has learned a lot from Putin’s experiences, but there aren’t a lot of lessons so far. Of course, Taiwanese public opinion thinks it's all lessons learned, that Xi fears sanctions and doesn't dare to attack Taiwan. But is Xi Jinping really afraid of sanctions? His real fear is that he will not be re-elected at the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) later this year, and that his whole family will die without a burial place. Including his gang of ass-kissers, they will all come to no good end; and they are afraid of sanctions?

The only lesson Xi Jinping has learned is to block access to foreign aid beforehand. This is easy with Taiwan, since the CCP navy has absolute dominance in the region. Without a war formally announced, or even after the war started , the US and Japanese navies would not necessarily intervene. This is because Taiwan, unlike Ukraine, is neither a NATO ally nor a U.S.-Japan ally. Moreover, legally speaking, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have not lifted the state of war to this day.

What will the people of Taiwan use to deal with this precarious situation? Top U.S. politicians from both parties have visited Taiwan. Taiwan finally has begun to discuss whether to extend mandatory military service. It also immediately began training for reserve units. How many men? Four hundred people, this is too much of a joke, even compared to Germany’s 9-to-5 military recruitment system. The Germans have the United States paying and sending troops for protection, but what are the Taiwanese qualifications, just learning from other people's national defense of not doing anything? Most of these have returned from an overseas education ruling their countries, have become fashionably leftists.

When the military officers in Mainland China heard about it, they immediately increased their confidence in armed reunification with Taiwan. To deal with such weak chickens, meritorious service will be rewarded at this point. Xi Jinping could just to put the onus on the Chinese people and to convince the opposition to support his military unification. Xi Jinping has already culled out the opposition generals, and the even Taiwanese media have noticed that Xi Jinping has taken control of the army and no one is opposed to it. And reaction? For fear of irritating the mainland, it has always been mainly verbal artillery, instead of action. It is said that Taiwan's youth do not want to be soldiers, because their dads and moms can’t let them go. As if American and Japanese dads and moms are willing to give up their sons and send them to Taiwan to die.

The number one factor that prompted Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was the support of the majority of the Russian people. Xi Jinping knew this much earlier than Putin. Over the years, he has taken advantage of the de-Sinicization policies of Taiwan's Deep Green (pro-independence) political parties to reverse the indifference of the majority Chinese to the armed reunification of Taiwan. In this regard, the Deep Green Internet trolls who have gone so far as to call the Han ethnicity to which they belong as ‘China pigs’ in order to show their fierce attitude, actually have done Xi Jinping a big favor. On the Internet, there are people who put the blame on camouflaged CCP trolls (fifty centers). But if you don't take the lead publicly, you cannot let the others disguised as your friends to fool.

The ability to gain the support of the people and the military is the biggest motivating factor for whether Xi Jinping dares to unify Taiwan. Taiwan is helping Xi Jinping hype up the tone of armed reunification while abandoning efforts to defend itself. It also thinks that by making gestures others will come to their aid in the war. This makes even friends uneasy, so the U.S. does not dare to sell its most advanced weapons to Taiwan in order to prevent the communist army from copying them.

Now for its own security, Taiwan should immediately turn its energy of infighting to armed preparation. It should put aside the lengthy approval process as Ukraine did, and accelerate the purchase of advanced weaponry from various countries. It should begin mass mobilization for military service and reserve training to enhance defense capabilities. Also it should ban insulting remarks by ‘fifty-centers’ of dark green. It should dispense goodwill to mainland Chinese and lower their antipathy. It may not be too late.

If they continue to de-Sinify and infight for the sake of the election, they may be the offenders of the people of Taiwan and the people of China. At that point, you high-ranking officials and celebrity mouthpieces can flee to the United States and Japan, but what about the ordinary Taiwanese? Accept the Communist dictatorship? You have not left these people much leeway.

Original link of the commentary broadcasted by Radio Free Asia:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-04112022105506.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2022/WeiJS220410onUkrainetoAsia.mp3

(Written on April 8 and recorded on April 10, 2022. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on April 11, 2022.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1464-W1062

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1464-W1062

Release Date: April 11, 2022

发布日：2022年4月11日

Topic: The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Situation in Asia -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：俄乌战争对亚洲局势的影响 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2022/report2022-4/WeiJS220411onUkrainetoAsiaA1464-W1061.htm

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俄乌战争对亚洲局势的影响

-- 魏京生

议论俄乌战争对亚洲局势影响的越来越多，集中在议论中共武统台湾的可能性上。大多数乐观的观点，都有一个前提性的错误，就是俄罗斯败了，乌克兰凭着简陋的武器战胜了俄罗斯。这种乐观的舆论不是在帮助乌克兰人民，实际上放松了西方人民支援乌克兰的决心，增加了乌克兰与俄军搏斗的阻力。我想普京正是看到了这个有利形势，从基辅周边撤军。这既纵容了国际舆论盲目乐观的情绪，又可以调整战术，集中兵力彻底拿下乌东两州和沿海地区。

军界有识之士已经发出了警告：战争可能会延续几个月甚至几年，甚至扩展到乌克兰以外。泽连斯基已经感觉扛不住了，但是被英勇的乌克兰军民否决了。普京的谈判条件则没有后退一步，他正在偷着笑。

我猜习近平从普京那儿学到了很多经验，教训到现在为止好像并不多。当然台湾舆论认为都是教训，习近平怕制裁不敢打台湾。习近平真的怕制裁吗？他真正怕的是年底的二十大不能连任，那他全家都死无葬身之地。包括他的那帮马屁精，都不会有什么好下场。他们怕制裁吗？

习近平学到的唯一教训，就是事先封锁外援的通道。这对台湾很容易，中共海军在区域内占绝对优势。没正式开战，甚至开战以后，美日的海军都不一定会介入。因为台湾和乌克兰不同，既不是北约盟国，也不是美日的盟国。况且从法律上来讲，两岸至今并没有解除战争状态。

台湾人民用什么来应对这个危若累卵的局面呢？美国两党高层政治家访台。台湾终于开始讨论是否延长兵役制，也马上开始了预备役的集训。多少人呢？四百人，这也太开玩笑了吧，堪比德国的朝九晚五募兵制。人家有美国出人出钱保护，你有什么资格，就学人家的躺平制国防？留学生治国大多搞成了左派时髦。

大陆军官们听说后，立刻增强了武统的信心。对付这样的弱鸡，立功受奖当在此时。习近平正好把责任推给人民群众，说服反对派支持他武统。习近平已经剔除了反对派的将军们。台湾媒体不也研判，习近平已经控制了军队，没人反对了吗。动作呢？怕刺激大陆，从来都是口炮为主，动作没有。据说是台湾青年不愿意当兵，爹妈舍不得。好象美国、日本人的爹妈，就舍得自己的儿子去台湾送死。

促使普京决定侵略乌克兰的第一大因素，就是俄罗斯多数人民的支持。这个习近平比普京知道得更早。多年来利用台湾深绿政党的去中国化，扭转了大多数人对武统台湾的淡漠心态。在这方面，为了表现自己、态度激烈的深绿五毛，甚至骂自己所属的汉族为支那猪，帮了习近平的大忙。网上有把责任推给伪装的共军五毛。你不公开带头，人家伪装也不像呀。

能否获得人民群众和军人的支持，才是习近平敢不敢武统台湾的最大动因。台湾一边在帮助习近平炒高武统的调门，一边放弃保卫自己的努力，还以为做做姿态别人就会来帮你打仗。这让朋友也不放心，所以美国不敢把最先进的武器卖给台湾，防止共军仿制。

如今为台湾安全计，应立刻把内斗的精力转为武装准备，像乌克兰那样搁置冗长的审批程序，加快向各国购买先进的武器装备。并开始大规模动员兵役和预备役训练，增强防卫能力。同时禁止绿五毛的侮辱性言论，对大陆人民释出善意，降低大陆人民的反感心态。可能还来得及。

如果为了选举继续去中国化和内斗，你们可能就是台湾人民和中国人民的罪人。到那时你们这些高官显宦和名嘴们，可以逃到美国日本去，老百姓怎么办？接受共产党的专制统治吗？你们没有给他们留下选择的余地。

本篇评论在自由亚洲电台的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-04112022105506.html