Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition News and Article Release Issue Number: A1617-O374

中国民主运动海外联席会议新闻与文章发布号：A1617-O374

Release Date: November 18, 2023

发布日：2023年11月18日

Topic: [Pinnacle View] The Collapse of the Chinese Communist Regime Is Imminent and "the Congress on China’s Directions" is Seeking a New Path

标题：【菁英論壇】中共垮台在即，「國是會議」謀新路

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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[Pinnacle View] The Collapse of the Chinese Communist Regime Is Imminent and "the Congress on China’s Directions" is Seeking a New Path

Beijing time: 2023-11-16 08:00

[New Tang Dynasty News, Beijing time, November 16, 2023] During Xi Jinping's trip to the United States to attend the APEC Summit, a large number of Chinese gathered in San Francisco to protest. A group of Chinese democracy activists announced that they will hold "the Congress on China’s Directions" next year to discuss the transition plan for ending the Chinese Communist regime and establishing a democratic China. This is the largest joint effort by overseas pro-democracy movements in the past two decades.

As the Collapse of the Chinese Communist Regime Approaches, Overseas Democracy Movements Prepare for the First "Congress on China’s Directions"

Mr. Wei Jingsheng, a Chinese democracy movement activist, said in NTDTV's "Pinnacle View" program that "the Congress on China’s Directions" is scheduled to be held in Washington DC on March 2 next year. The situation in China is developing rapidly, and Xi Jinping's regime is becoming more and more unstable. As the giant is about to fall, many friends in China and abroad are urging us to chart a direction for everyone. If Xi Jinping's regime collapses, in what form will it collapse? What will happen to China after its collapse? Representing the Chinese democratic movement, we have our own opinions on these issues. People mainly want to hear these, so we decided to hold this discussion at "the Congress on China’s Directions" together. Everyone now has a consensus that we need to come up with something decent so that people can have a goal to strive for. It is not enough to just oppose the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). What will we look like after we oppose the CCP? This is the main goal of our "Congress on China’s Directions". It is to draw a blueprint for a good future of China and show a true vision to the Chinese people and the international community; a blueprint to let everyone know what our goal is and what China may look like in the future.

Wei Jingsheng said that when it comes to the transition of this society, some people feel no hope for the Chinese. Even at the past conference (on Nov. 11 in San Francisco), some people said that the Chinese are not good and China will not be democratic in a thousand years, because the morals of the Chinese are too bad and their characters are bad as well. But this is all caused by the Communist system. The CCP itself treats everyone unfairly. There is no law, and there is no need to enforce the law that exists. Thus everything is unstable, and of course people's minds are unstable as well. Therefore, after we establish democratic politics, it is very important to reestablish the rule of law and treat everyone with fairness without exception. These unfair laws, manipulated laws, and privatized laws are the real greatest harm to society, and they cause many problems, including a decline in morality, etc.

Wei Jingsheng said that the most important reason for whether a society will be stable or not is the people's view of the society and the government. Ordinary people may not have such high-level theories, but they have their own opinions, whether they like it or not, whether they oppose or support the resignation of this government. These aspects can be observed, and they are the most basic thing. With these things in place, there will be many changes in the upper class society, because the upper class society is not separated from the grassroots. The reason why the CCP is so chaotic internally right now is because this regime itself is an autocratic regime. Now everyone is gradually realizing that everyone is in danger under this autocratic regime. Not only the common Chinese are in danger, but the officials are also in danger. This reflects that the entire society has become unstable, the public sentiment is changing, and then the entire upper class is also changing with the public sentiment. Everyone is dissatisfied with this system in China, so the system will have to change its appearance. This is the timing of history.

400 Million People Have Withdrawn From the CCP. The Public Sentiment Has Changed Dramatically. All Conditions Are In Place For the Collapse of the CCP.

Guo Jun, editor-in-chief of The Epoch Times, said in the "Pinnacle View" that we have been talking about an issue in the past: that is, if one of two things happens, the CCP will most likely collapse. The first is a serious economic crisis, and the second is a failed foreign war. We see that the economic crisis in China is currently underway and is basically out of control. The economic crisis will cause financial losses to a large number of people, especially the wealthy and powerful who have the greatest losses, so they are the most dissatisfied. In fact, the situation is exactly like this. The powerful class within the CCP are very dissatisfied with the current regime, and Chinese in the middle-class and above level are also very dissatisfied. These people are the foundation of the CCP regime. The second is war, especially a failed war. In the past ten years, the CCP has been aggressive in its external behavior, shouting fights and killings, especially in tit-for-tat confrontation with the United States in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. If a war breaks out, it will definitely be a war conflict between China and the United States. Regardless of whether it is a big war or a small war, the CCP has a good chance it will lose. If the CCP loses, basically the last bit of legitimacy of the CCP will be completely lost. But the CCP may not necessarily see it this way itself. They believe that their chances of winning are very high, and they are even quite optimistic about the economy. They believe that they are better than the United States and will replace the United States as the leader, so the CCP dares to take risks. If both situations occur at the same time, the CCP will probably collapse very quickly, and the speed may be very fast. Before anyone can react, it will happen suddenly.

Independent TV producer Li Jun said in the "Pinnacle View" that historically, when a regime really collapses, there are generally four decisive factors. The first is a huge change in people's minds; the second is internal split; the third is economic collapse; the fourth is external danger. Sometimes the regime collapses when one of these four factors appears. Now the CCP basically has all four factors present. The first one is the great change in people's minds. You can see that since the White Paper revolution, people have shouted out in China that the CCP should step down and Xi Jinping should step down, even though more people have not yet shouted out. The second of the internal struggle has already reached a life-or-death stage, as everyone can also observe. The third is economic collapse, and we can see that China's economic crisis is very serious now. The fourth external danger is that both the United States and Europe now know that the CCP is their number one threat. This is what the U.S. government, and even Biden himself, has said: the CCP is the number one threat. In this situation, If the CCP takes a step forward, this war may be difficult to avoid.

Now that these four factors are present, this regime may actually change and collapse at any time. However, many people do not see this because of propaganda inside of China. One of the characteristics of the CCP is that it controls people's thoughts extremely well. Therefore, if China wants to truly transition to a democratic and free society, the awakening of the people is very important. From the time the Epoch Times published the "Nine Commentaries on the CCP" in November 2004 to the present, a huge thing has actually happened in Chinese society. However, it has been covered up. It is the spiritual awakening movement to withdraw from the CCP and the urging to withdraw from the CCP by spreading the Nine Commentaries and urging folks to withdraw. Recently, I happened to be cooperating with the Global Service Center for Quitting the CCP to make a documentary about the awakening of 400 million people. According to data released by the Quit the CCP Center, 420 million people in China have withdrawn from the organizations affiliated with the CCP. I spent three years investigating whether it was true or not, and the accuracy of its data. The technical staff of the Global Center to Quit the CCP showed me their database. In its original database, it actually contains 420 million data, and it has historical traceability. What I can find out is that this data is real. I also interviewed more than a dozen front-line volunteers from the United States, Australia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Europe and mainland China who were trying to persuade people to quit the CCP. Some of them actually persuaded 170,000 people to quit, some persuaded 10,000 to 20,000 people to quit, and some of them have been going out to tell people clearly what the CCP is in cities like Tianjin in mainland China for fourteen years. So I think this is the largest peaceful, rational and non-violent popular spiritual awakening movement in human history. In this process, many Chinese people have begun to wake up. After seeing clearly the centralized rule of the CCP and its essence, I think there is a spiritual foundation for China to move towards democracy and freedom. This spiritual foundation has already formed, and is here today.

It Is Not a Self-stabilizing Structure and Is About to Explode When the Communist Regime Collapses

Shi Shan, senior editor and chief writer of The Epoch Times, said in the "Pinnacle View" that he believes friends in the pro-democracy movement feel this way, that mainland China has now reached a turning point. It's actually quite interesting, because Xi Jinping talks about “big changes unseen in a century”, and it's going to be “turbulent”. We call this Murphy's Law, which means whatever you think, whatever you fear will happen, and whatever you fear, whatever happens will happen. In fact, It is very likely that some relatively major events will occur in China. There is a Newton's law in physics, that is, the greater the mass, the greater the force and the longer the time it takes to change its direction or speed. I think the Chinese democratic movement, like Mr. Wei Jingsheng and Mr. Wang Juntao, has been doing work for maybe thirty or forty years -- a very long time. These things were only possible because of the opportunity of the right time, the right place and the right people. I think many friends in the pro-democracy movement circle feel that the time and place are approaching a turning point.

Shi Shan said that in fact, one characteristic of the Communist system is that its changes will be very sudden. We see that Romania was still shouting "Long live Ceausescu" in front of him, yet they executed him six days later. This was a very fast speed. The same was true for the Berlin Wall, as the Politburo was still in its meetings discussing how to deal with it, the Berlin Wall was already demolished. Within a few months, the entire East Germany collapsed. This was also the case with the former Soviet Union. It is a characteristic of all communist systems. Of course, we can discuss this feature from a structural point of view, because all its governance is firmly tied together with iron chains. It does not have a self-stabilizing structure or a small stable structure. It is all tied together with a big chain together, as the Communist Party leads everything. When any link in this chain is broken, everything collapses, so the collapse is very complete. In the current situation, we have no way to predict when it will collapse, but you can feel that the pressure is increasing, and every chain is struggling desperately, and every link is struggling desperately. When one link breaks, the entire building may collapse instantly. Therefore, I think it is very important for the overseas democracy movement to prepare now, because by the time it really collapses, it will be too late for you to do anything like that.

The new TV program "Pinnacle View" launched by NTDTV and The Epoch Times is a high-end TV forum based in the Chinese world. The program will bring together elites from all walks of life around the world to focus on hot topics, analyze the general trend of the world, and provide viewers with relevant social affairs and history, and an in-depth look at the truth.

Please watch the entire content of this issue of "Pinnacle View" online.

"Pinnacle View" Production Team

(Editor: Liu Mingxiang)

Original link of this report:

https://www.ntdtv.com/b5/2023/11/15/a103825513.html

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中文版

Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition News and Article Release Issue Number: A1617-O374

中国民主运动海外联席会议新闻与文章发布号：A1617-O374

Release Date: November 18, 2023

发布日：2023年11月18日

Topic: [Pinnacle View] The Collapse of the Chinese Communist Regime Is Imminent and "the Congress on China’s Directions" is Seeking a New Path

标题：【菁英論壇】中共垮台在即，「國是會議」謀新路

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2023/report2023-11/WeiJSonChinaCongress231118PinnacleViewA1617-O374.htm

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【菁英論壇】中共垮台在即，「國是會議」謀新路

北京時間：2023-11-16 08:00

【新唐人北京時間2023年11月16日訊】在習近平赴美參加APEC會議期間，大批的華人聚集在舊金山舉行抗議。一批中國民主運動人士宣布，將於明年舉行中國的國是會議，討論結束中共政權建立民主中國的過渡方案。這是過去二十年以來海外民主運動最大的一次聯合行動。

中共垮台臨近海外民運籌辦首次國是會議

中國民主運動活動家魏京生先生在新唐人《菁英論壇》節目中表示，國是會議計劃在明年3月2日在華盛頓DC舉行，現在中國的形勢發展很快，眼看著習近平政權越來越顫顫巍巍的要倒下了，所以國內外的很多朋友都敦促我們給大家描繪一個方向。習近平政權如果垮台了，會以什麼形式垮？垮台以後中國會怎麼個走向？這些問題我們作為民主運動方面有自己的說法，大家主要是希望聽到這些，所以我們決定在一起開這個討論會。大家現在都有一個共識，就是需要拿出一個像樣的東西來，讓老百姓有個奮鬥目標。只是反對共產黨還不夠，反對共產黨以後我們是什麼樣的，這是我們這個會議的主要目標，就為了將來中國有個好的前途，畫出一個藍圖來，給全國老百姓包括給國際社會展現一個真正的藍圖，讓大家知道我們的奮鬥目標到底是什麼樣的，將來中國可能是什麼樣的。

魏京生表示，講到這個社會的過渡，有些人對中國人很沒有希望，這次我們開會還有人提出中國人不行，一千年也不會民主，中國人道德太差了，人品惡劣。但是這都是由於共產黨的制度造成的，共產黨本身就是不公平的對待所有人，沒有法律，有法律也可以不執行，那麼所有東西都不穩定，人心當然也就不穩定了。所以我們建立民主政治以後很重要一點就是重建法治，要用公平的法律來對待所有的人，沒有例外的對待所有人。這不公平的法律、被操縱的法律、私有化的法律，這才是真正對社會最大的危害，而且造成諸多的問題，包括道德德下降等等。

魏京生說，一個社會是不是會穩定，或者是不是會不穩定，最重要的原因就是老百姓對這個社會對這個政府的看法。老百姓可能沒那麼高的理論，但是他有他自己的看法，他喜歡還是不喜歡，他是反對還是贊成這個政府下台，這些方面是可以觀察到的，這是最基礎的東西。有了這些東西以後上層社會就會有很多變化，因為上層社會它不是脫離基層的。共產黨現在內部之所以那麼亂，就因為這個政權本身就是個專制政權，現在大家慢慢意識到了，所有人在這個專制政權下都是危險的，不僅老百姓危險，這些當官的也很危險，這就反映出整個社會已經不穩定了，民心在變，然後整個上層也跟著民心在變，大家都對這個體制不滿意了，那麼這個體制就要改頭換面了，這就是歷史的時機。

4億人三退民心巨變中共垮台各項條件俱全

大紀元時報總編輯郭君在《菁英論壇》表示，以前我們一直談一個問題，就是說如果出現兩個事情，中共大概率的會垮台。第一個就是一場嚴重的經濟危機，第二個就是一場失敗的對外戰爭。我們看到現在中國的經濟危機正在進行當中，基本上已經失控了，經濟危機會造成大量的人出現財務損失，尤其是權貴階層他們的損失最大，所以他們的不滿也就最大。其實情況正是這樣，中共內部的權貴階層對現政權非常的不滿，中產以上的人群也非常不滿，而這些人正是中共政權的基礎；第二個就是戰爭，尤其是失敗的戰爭。過去十年來，中共對外表現的咄咄逼人、喊打喊殺，尤其在台海和南海和美國針鋒相對，如果發生戰爭，就一定是中美之間的戰爭衝突，不管大戰還是小戰，中共的勝算都是非常的小。如果中共輸掉的話，基本上中共最後一點合法性也就徹底喪失了。但中共內部未必這麼看的，它們認為自己的勝算很高，甚至對經濟也還蠻樂觀，認為比美國還好，會取代美國成為老大，所以中共才敢冒險。如果兩個情況同時出現，中共估計很快就會垮掉，而且速度可能是非常快，大家還沒有反應過來，那邊已經突然就發生了。

獨立電視制片人李軍在《菁英論壇》表示，從歷史上來看，一個政權真的崩潰的時候，一般情況下有四個決定因素啊，第一個是人心巨變；第二個是內部分裂；第三個是經濟崩潰；第四個是外部凶險。這四個因素有的時候有一個因素出現這個政權就垮掉了，現在中共是這四個因素基本上都俱全了。第一個人心巨變，大家可以看到，從白紙革命開始，人們已經在中國喊出來了，就是共產黨下台，習近平下台，那麼沒有喊出的人更多；那第二個內部分裂，際上內部的這種鬥爭已經到了你死我活的階段，大家也能觀察到；第三個是經濟崩潰，大家可以看到現在中國的經濟危機非常嚴重。第四個外部凶險，現在美國也好，歐洲也好，都很清楚中共是他們的頭號威脅，這都是美國政府，甚至拜登他們自己的話，說中共是頭號威脅，那麼這種情況下，如果中共這邊往前走一步的話，這場戰爭就有可能很難避免。

這四個因素現在都具備了，這個政權其實真的隨時可能發生變化，隨時可能垮台。但是很多人因為受國內的宣傳，沒看到這一點，中共有個特點就是對人們的思想控制特別厲害，所以中國如果要真正過渡到一個民主自由的社會的話，民眾的覺醒就非常重要。從2004年11月份大紀元發表《九評共產黨》之後走到現在，其實在中國社會發生了一個很巨大的事情，但一直被掩蓋的，那就是傳九評、勸三退的三退（退出黨團隊）精神覺醒運動。最近，我正好跟全球退黨服務中心合作拍了個紀錄片，講四億人的覺醒。根據退黨中心公布的數據，現在中國有4.2億人退出了中共的黨團隊組織。我花了三年的時間來調查這個事情到底是真是假，它的數據的準確性。全球退黨服務中心的技術人員給我展示了他們的數據庫，它的原始數據庫中真有4.2億的數據，而且有歷史可追溯性。我查什麼時間都能查出來的，就是這個數據是真實存在的。我還採訪了來自美國、澳洲、台灣、香港、歐洲還有中國大陸的十幾位一線的做勸退的義工。他們當中有的人一個人確退了17萬人，有的人一個人勸退一兩萬人，有的人連續在中國大陸天津這樣的城市，十四年如一日出去跟人講清中共是什麼，所以我覺得這是人類有史以來最大規模的一次和平理性非暴力的民眾精神覺醒運動。在這個過程中，使很多中國民眾開始清醒了，當看清了中共的這種集權統治，看清了它的本質之後，我覺得中國走向民主和自由就有精神基礎了，這個精神基礎到今天已經形成了。

無自穩定結構共產政權崩潰時一觸即發

大紀元資深編輯與主筆石山在《菁英論壇》表示，我相信民運的朋友們都有這個感覺，就是中國大陸現在到了一個轉折點。其實挺有意思的，因為習近平到處說百年未有之大大變局，而且是驚濤駭浪如何如何，這個東西我們叫墨菲定律，就是說你想什麼，就來什麼，你怕什麼，就來什麼，其實在中國很有可能發生一些比較重大的事件。物理上有個有一個牛頓定律，就是質量越大，你要改變它的方向或者速度的話，你用的力量也更大，時間也更長。我認為中國民主運動像魏京生先生、王軍濤先生，他們已經做了可能三四十年的工作，做了很長很長的時間，這些事情都是天時地利人和的一個機會，才能夠做的。我認為很多民運圈子裡面的朋友大家都感受到現在這個天時和地利快到轉折點了。

石山說，其實共產黨體制有個特點，就是它的那個改變會非常突然。我們看羅馬尼亞前面還在喊齊奧塞斯庫萬歲，六天以後就把他槍斃了，這是非常非常快的一個速度；包括柏林牆也是，這個政治局還在開會要怎麼樣應付，那邊牆已經給拆了，沒過幾個月，整個東德就倒了；包括前蘇聯也是這樣，所有的共產黨體制這是它的一個特點。當然這個特點我們可以從結構學上來討論，因為它所有的統治都是用鐵鏈子牢牢的拴在一起，它沒有一個自穩定結構，沒有小的穩定結構，它就是用一條大鏈子全部拴在一起，就是黨領導一切，當這個鏈條哪一環一斷，就全部就垮掉，所以垮的非常非常徹底。現在的情況我們沒有辦法預測它什麼時候倒台，但是你可以感覺到這個壓力越來越大，每一個鏈條都在拚命的掙扎，每一環都在拚命的掙扎。當某一環一旦斷裂，整個大廈可能就瞬間倒塌。所以我認為海外民運現在去做準備是非常應該的，因為你等它真的倒的時候，你再去做已經完全來不及了。

新唐人、大紀元推出的新檔電視節目《菁英論壇》，是立足於華人世界的高端電視論壇，該節目將彙集全球各界精英，聚焦熱點議題，剖析天下大勢，為觀眾提供有關社會時事和歷史真相的深度觀察。

本期《菁英論壇》全部內容，敬請線上收看。

《菁英論壇》製作組

（責任編輯：劉明湘）

报道的原始链接：

https://www.ntdtv.com/b5/2023/11/15/a103825513.html