Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1628-W1187

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1628-W1187

Release Date: January 6, 2024

发布日：2024年1月6日

Topic: Talking about Chinese Peasants and the Countryside Problems Again After the New Year -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：过新年再谈农民和农村问题 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Talking about Chinese Peasants and the Countryside Problems Again After the New Year

-- Wei Jingsheng

The New Year is over and everyone has calmed down. Now let’s talk about the biggest social problem in Chinese society, which is the problem of peasants and rural areas. It is mainly a new situation and new problems brought about by the wave of migrant peasant workers returning to the countryside.

Significant changes have taken place in rural China over the past thirty years. The problem of contracted land being abandoned due to migrant workers in cities has been alleviated to a certain extent. That is to say, the scale of farming concentration and agricultural modernization is continuing to progress. The rapid expansion of the number of various machines and the scale of operations marked a huge change also in the social structure of rural areas.

Most of the investigations we have seen in the past focused on elderly people and children left behind in the countryside. This was the reality in previous years. Although the problem is serious, people adapt quickly, so it did not appear to be a serious social problem. Similarly to the situation in the early industrialization era in Britain and the United States, it did not constitute a condition for social unrest.

Now, due to the huge ups and downs of the economy in China, many so-called migrant workers who have been away from the countryside for a long time have returned to the countryside to make a living. When their source of livelihood returns to the countryside, they will inevitably have conflicts and disputes with the new rural structure. Are they to re-divide the land into small parcels? Or are they taking jobs from other enterprises in rural areas? Or will they wander around idle and create new unstable groups? There are various possibilities. These are things that the already weakened rural management institutions cannot afford.

China after Deng Xiaoping has changed from Mao Zedong's reliance on idealism to maintain an autocratic system to relying on tolerance of corruption to maintain a market autocratic system, which has been the traditional autocratic management of the market economy in China. But there is no autonomous management system of grassroots society in ancient rural areas anymore. Officials of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and bullies replaced the prestigious country gentry, and violence replaced the residents' voluntary recognition and support.

The biggest weakness of the existing system is that when the upper-level violent institutions cannot reach the grassroots, small social dissatisfaction will accumulate and explode into large-scale unrest. Nowadays, a large number of migrant workers have returned to the countryside, which has greatly impacted the existing social structure. Moreover, they are still in a situation similar to that of ancient Chinese peasants, and it is difficult to survive. This situation is the basic law of dynastic change in Chinese history and the basic condition for large-scale turmoil.

Most of the ancient peasant revolutions had some rural intellectuals as the backbone and advisors, otherwise it would not have been possible to expand in scale and pose a threat to the political power. Compared with the peasants in ancient times, the structure of migrant workers returning to their hometowns is completely different. The proportion of intellectuals among them is very high, no longer at the level of rural intellectuals. They are well-informed and have a huge amount of information and a high proportion of demobilized soldiers among them, thus have more mature conditions for rebellion than their ancestors.

Looking at the trends of Xi Jinping's regime, it is envious of the great deception of the Mao Zedong era, thinking that the unstable problem of people's minds can be solved by ideological illusion. With the level of awareness of returning migrant workers and the disillusionment of the entire society, it is difficult to block information either. Big deception is not an effective measure at all. It can only be a wishful thinking and foolish imitation of the past.

Some literati have been promoting the idea of hot weapons and cold weapons for many years. In fact, in the era when Chen Sheng and Wu Guang “chopped wood into weapons” for their uprising (in 209 B.C.), the equipment gap between the government and the people was also very large, yet it still could not stop the trend of rebellion. Once the regime is unacceptable to the majority of people, all measures to prevent rebellion will only serve as a stumbling block and cannot change the final outcome.

There are also some people who fantasize that if they oppose Xi Jinping but not the Communist Party, the problem will be solved by changing a group of Communist party leaders. This is their failure to see the inevitability of history. The communist experiment had gone bankrupt ideologically after the Mao Zedong era. In the competition with the democratic market economy, it has lost twice in a row. As a matter of fact, the objective conditions for returning to the Mao Zedong era have totally disappeared. If one still fantasizes about continuing this experiment, one will only lose even more miserably.

The only way is to vigorously experiment with democratic politics and embark on a legally guaranteed market economic system to create a new situation that brings security and prosperity to the Chinese people. Otherwise, long-term turmoil and disintegration will unavoidably make the Chinese people plunge into dire straits.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-01052024101409.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2024/WeiJS240104onChinesePeasantsII.mp3

Related screenshot of Wei Jingsheng’s commentary on RFA website:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2024/newsletters2024-1/WeiJSonChinesePeasantsII240105RFApage.jpg

(Written and recorded on January 4, 2024. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on January 5, 2024.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1628-W1187

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1628-W1187

Release Date: January 6, 2024

发布日：2024年1月6日

Topic: Talking about Chinese Peasants and the Countryside Problems Again After the New Year -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：过新年再谈农民和农村问题 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2024/report2024-1/WeiJS240106onChinesePeasantsIIA1628-W1187.htm

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过新年再谈农民和农村问题

-- 魏京生

新年过完了，大家心情平复了，再来谈谈中国社会最大的社会问题，也就是农民和农村问题，主要是回乡潮带来的新形势和新问题。

三十年来中国农村发生了重大的变化。土地承包因为进城打工而被撂荒的问题，得到了一定的缓解。也就是耕作集中和农业现代化的规模，正在不断进展之中。各种机械的数量和经营的规模迅速扩大，标志着农村的社会结构也产生了巨大的变化。

以往看到的一些调查，大多集中在留守老人和儿童方面，这是前些年的现实。问题虽然很严重，但人们很快就会适应，所以没有显示为严重的社会问题。和英美等国早期工业化时代的情况类似，不构成社会动荡的条件。

现在因为中国经济的大起大落，很多已经长期脱离农村的所谓农民工，回到农村来讨生活了。他们的生活来源回到了农村，必然和农村新的结构产生矛盾纠纷。是重新把土地划成小块呢？还是抢农村其它行业的饭碗呢？还是游手好闲四处游荡，造成新的不稳定群体呢？各种可能性都有。这些是早已经弱化的农村管理机构无法承担的。

邓小平之后的中国，已从毛泽东的依靠理想主义维持专制体制，转变为依靠容忍腐败维持市场专制体制，也就是中国传统的专制管理市场经济的模式。但却没有了古代农村的基层社会的自治管理体制。党官恶霸们代替了有威信的乡绅，暴力代替了居民自愿的承认和支持。

现有体制的最大弱点，就是在上层暴力机构无法达到基层的情况下，小的社会不满会积累爆发成为大的动荡。现在大批农民工返回农村，很大程度上冲击了现有的社会结构，而且他们还处于和古代农民相似的，难以生存的状况。这就是历史上改朝换代的基本规律，产生大规模动荡的基本条件。

古代的农民革命大都有一些乡村知识分子作为骨干和智囊，否则不可能扩大规模对政权构成威胁。现在回乡的农民工和古代的农民相比，结构已经大不相同。其中知识分子的比例非常高，而且不是乡村知识分子的水平了。他们见多识广信息量巨大，而且其中复员军人的比例很高，拥有比他们的先辈更成熟的造反条件。

看习近平政权的动向，是羡慕毛泽东时代的大忽悠，以为可以靠思想迷惑的作用解决人心不稳的问题。以现在返乡农民工们的认识水平，再加上全社会范围的理想破灭，信息也已难以封锁。大忽悠根本不是有效的措施，只能是东施效颦，邯郸学步，痴心妄想而已。

一些文人多年来宣传什么热兵器冷兵器的说法。其实陈胜吴广斩木为兵的时代，官民之间的装备差距也很大，仍然不能阻止造反的潮流。政权一旦被大多数人不能接受，所有阻挡造反的措施，都不过起到绊脚石的作用，改变不了最终的结局。

另有一些人幻想反习不反共，换一批共产党就能解决问题了。这是没有看到历史的必然。共产主义的实验，在毛泽东时代以后就从思想上破产了。在和民主的市场经济的竞赛中，已经连输了两次。事不过三，再次回到毛泽东时代的客观条件已经荡然无存了。还幻想继续试验，只能是输得更惨。

唯一的道路就是痛痛快快地实验民主政治，并且走上有法律保障的市场经济体制，开创给中国人民带来安全和富裕的新局面。否则长期动荡和四分五裂，人民陷于水深火热就难以避免。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来相关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

评论的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-01052024101409.html