Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1634-W1191

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1634-W1191

Release Date: February 1, 2024

发布日：2024年2月1日

Topic: Cost of Wars -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：战争的代价 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Cost of Wars

-- Wei Jingsheng

Wars have occurred in many places recently, and local people have paid a high price for it. Although the war in Europe and the Middle East is in full swing, the most worrying thing is the potential war in East Asia. If Xi Jinping is determined to unify Taiwan by force, it will cause a big war. Many countries will be involved, similar to the scale of a world war.

The Russia-Ukraine war has caused economic recession in Europe, and the Palestinian war has involved Iran and Yemen, making global cargo transportation difficult. If a war across the Taiwan Strait begins, what will happen? Those involved and threatened are major economic powers, and the situation is likely to get out of control. Even a nuclear war is possible, which would be more destructive than the previous two world wars.

Since one of the main issues in Taiwan's election was whether it would lead to war, and who could guarantee that war will not happen, it was apparent that the overwhelming public opinion says that Xi Jinping does not dare to start a war, so there is no need to worry, etc. This is one of the weaknesses of modern democracy: it is all about elections, everything revolves around elections, and nothing else. Sometimes it also obscures people's observation, leading to misjudgment and danger.

Optimistic theories that have been popular recently include that the Communist missiles are filled with water and that the missile silo covers cannot be opened, etc. They are obviously a low-level rumor created for the election, something to deceive children. But the weaknesses of human nature include only believing what you want to believe and not listening to advice that is offensive. The U.S. decision-makers obviously did not believe these low-level rumors, and still sent the third aircraft carrier to the front line in the Western Pacific, maintaining a high degree of vigilance.

The optimistic propaganda that floods the media is likely to be the deceptive tactic of "pretend to be unable even though able" as mentioned in Sun Tzu's Art of War. The exaggeration by the Chinese and English media controlled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) can lead many decision-makers being deceived and achieve the effect of a surprise attack. If this strategy succeeds, what will be the result?

People who believe in the so-called think tank war predictions believe that the CCP is bound to lose, thus the CCP does not dare to launch a war. However, they did not consider when there are internal and external troubles and economic recession, taking the risk of launching a war to build internal unity and divert people's attention is also an option. Is it better to perish or take risks? It cannot be ruled out that Xi Jinping chooses to take risks.

The media is flooded with propaganda, including US-skeptic remarks, telling people to stop resisting and that the United States will not save Taiwan. This is an attempt to undermine the impetus for international resistance. It is indeed a problem for the United States. But a war in the Taiwan Strait will cut off the lifelines of Japan and South Korea. They will have to join the war, and the United States cannot stay out of it. Therefore, the prelude to a war in the Taiwan Strait is likely to happen on the Korean Peninsula first. Looking at North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un’s frequent actions recently and his vigorous efforts to restore friendship with the CCP, it is not a surprise that they plan joint actions.

A war between the United States and East Asian countries against China and North Korea will not only be a disaster for the people of these countries, but will also have a catastrophic impact on the global economy. Since countries friendly to the CCP such as Iran and Russia may join the world war, it will not only affect the economy. It is likely to be a reshuffling of the world structure. This is not alarmist.

Some people say that the CCP will definitely lose, which is very likely. But even if the CCP fails, no country can and is willing to occupy China. After all the countries, including China, have suffered huge losses, will the United States come up with another Marshall Plan? This is no longer possible. After Xi Jinping's clique used the war to increase its control over China, the Communist Party's dream of remaining in power for decades-longer will be succeeded. China will be in ruins, and its opportunity to move toward democracy and modernization will once again be lost.

Therefore, politicians with decision-making power in various countries must keep a clear mind and take precautions to prevent and stop Xi Jinping's risky behavior. Adding an aircraft carrier is not enough. Only by increasing economic, political, technological and diplomatic pressure on Xi Jinping and preventing him from preparing for war can we effectively eliminate the risk of this world war.

People from all walks of life in China, for the sake of your own interests and security, should also do your best to attack the Xi Jinping clique and prevent his military adventures from endangering the interests of the country and the Chinese people.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-01312024100150.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2024/WeiJS240130onCostofWars.mp3

Related screenshot of Wei Jingsheng’s commentary on RFA website:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2024/newsletters2024-1/WeiJSonCostofWars240201RFApage.jpg

(Written and recorded on January 30, 2024. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on January 31, 2024.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1634-W1191

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1634-W1191

Release Date: February 1, 2024

发布日：2024年2月1日

Topic: Cost of Wars -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：战争的代价 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2024/report2024-2/WeiJS240201onCostofWarsA1634-W1191.htm

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战争的代价

-- 魏京生

最近很多地方都发生了战争，当地的人民也为此付出了很高的代价。虽然欧洲和中东一带打得热火朝天，但是最让人担心的却是东亚的潜在战争。如果习近平决心武统台湾，将会引起一场大战。很多国家会被卷进来，类似于世界大战的规模。

俄乌战争已经使得欧洲经济衰退，巴勒斯坦战争把伊朗和也门卷进来，使得全球货物运输造成困难。如果台海战争开始，那会是一个什么局面呢？被卷进来和受到威胁的都是经济大国，局面很可能会失控。甚至核大战都有可能，这比前两次的世界大战破坏力更强。

由于台湾大选的主要议题之一，就是会不会导致战争，谁能保证不会发生战争,于是压倒性的舆论都说习近平不敢发动战争，不用担心云云。这是现代民主制的弱点之一：就是一切为了选举，一切围绕选举，而不及其余。有时候也会遮蔽了人们的观察，导致误判而陷入危险。

乐观论最近甚嚣尘上的说法包括，共军的导弹里灌的是水，导弹发射井盖打不开，等等。明显是为选举而制造的低级谣言，骗小孩子的玩意儿。但是人性的弱点包括只相信愿意相信的东西，听不进逆耳的忠言。美国决策层显然不相信这些低级谣言，还是把第三艘航空母舰派到了西太平洋的前线，保持了高度的警惕。

充斥着媒体的乐观派宣传，很可能是孙子兵法上说的“能而视之以不能”的欺骗性战术。由中共收买掌控的中英文媒体加以渲染，可以导致很多决策人士上当受骗，达到突然袭击的效果。如果这个策略成功了，会有什么结果呢？

相信所谓智库兵推的人们认为中共必败，因此中共不敢发动战争。但是没考虑到内忧外患经济衰退的形势下，冒险发动一场战争以凝聚内部团结，转移人们注意力，也是一种选择。是灭亡好，还是冒险好？不能排除习近平选择冒险。

充斥着媒体的宣传包括疑美派言论，告诉人们不要抵抗了，美国不会救台湾。以此企图瓦解国际抵抗的动力。这对美国来说的确是个难题。但是台海战争会切断日本、韩国的生命线，他们将不得不参战，美国无法置身事外。所以台海战争的前奏，很可能就是朝鲜半岛先出事。看看金三胖最近动作频频，以及和中共恢复友好打得火热，他们预谋联合行动就不是什么意外了。

美国和东亚各国对中朝两国的大战，不仅是这几国人民的灾难，必将对全球经济造成灾难性影响。由于伊朗、俄罗斯等中共友好国家可能加入世界大战，影响的就不仅仅是经济了。很可能是世界格局的重新洗牌。这不是危言耸听。

有人说中共必败，很有可能。但是即使中共失败了，也没有哪个国家能够并且愿意占领中国。在各国包括中国遭受到巨大的损失之后，还会有一个美国来一个马歇尔计划吗？没有这个可能了。习近平集团借助战争加大了对中国的掌控之后，共产党继续执政几十年的梦想就成功了。中国一片破败，走向民主和现代化的机会将再一次丧失。

因此，各国有决策权的政治家们要保持清醒的头脑，未雨绸缪防范和制止习近平的冒险行为。增加一艘航空母舰还远远不够，在经济、政治、科技和外交上给习近平增加压力，阻止他为发动战争做的准备，才能有效地扑灭这场世界大战的风险。

中国各界人民，为了自身的利益和安全，也应竭尽所能打击习近平集团，避免他的军事冒险危害到国家和人民的利益。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来相关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

评论的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-01312024100150.html