Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1636-W1192

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1636-W1192

Release Date: February 17, 2024

发布日：2024年2月17日

Topic: Is Russia a Good Friend of Xi Jinping? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：俄罗斯是习近平的好朋友吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

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Is Russia a Good Friend of Xi Jinping?

-- Wei Jingsheng

More than two years ago, Xi Jinping warmly received Russian President Vladimir Putin for the Olympic Games in Beijing. In excitement, he said that there are “no limits” to cooperation between the two countries, which has become a classic expression in international politics. This term has been around for a long time, sometimes with a hint of irony. In a recent interview with American reporter, President Putin showed no mercy in his sarcasm and ridicule.

Putin said that the CCP’s diplomacy is conservative and accustomed to compromise policies. This is exactly the opposite of the wolf warrior diplomacy observed in the West in recent years. Putin further joked with sarcasm that China is the biggest threat to the West, not Russia. China is ten times the size of Russia and has a strong economy. He openly sows discord and looks down on Comrade Xi Jinping, whose cooperation has no limits.

Why is there so much hatred? Putin launched the Ukrainian war only after Comrade Xi Jinping gave him the guarantee of "no limit to cooperation." But after it was activated, it seemed as if the “no limit to cooperation" had never existed. Xi Jinping obediently complied with Western sanctions and restrictions and did not provide Putin with weapons or ammunition. He only bought a large amount of oil and natural gas at a low price, which can be regarded as a war fortune. His cooperative attitude is no more than that of India, and even lower than that of countries such as Iran and North Korea.

Let’s not mention that the so-called sanctions in the West are nothing more than a colander. Not only has Russia's economy not been destroyed by sanctions, it has developed at a normal rate instead. Yet, this “no limit” to the cooperation that Putin hopes for is just a big lie. Recently, Chinese banks have stopped helping Russia’s foreign trade with money laundering, and Putin’s patience has reached its limit as well. So he expressed his restrained dissatisfaction with sarcastic remarks, through interviews with the American reporter.

Why is this “no limit” cooperation that Putin hoped for no longer possible? It’s not because that Secretary-General Xi doesn’t want to give it, but that a lot of public opinion within China and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) doesn’t want to give it. Judging from various signs, Xi Jinping has indeed made a lot of effort, but in the end he still cannot overcome the psychological barriers of the vast majority of Chinese people. Why?

Historically, the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire occupied more than three million square kilometers of China's territory through unequal treaties. After World War II, all the Allies abrogated unequal treaties and returned territory and rights. Only the Soviet Union, an ally of the CCP, verbally promised to return the territory, yet in fact, it took advantage of Mao Zedong's predicament in the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China and took away more than one million square kilometers of territory of Outer Mongolia. Then, it took advantage of the weakness and compromise diplomacy of Jiang Zemin and Deng Xiaoping, confirming the legality of the illegal occupation of territory and signed a border treaty instead. Therefore, Mr. Putin laughs at the CCP’s diplomacy as compromise diplomacy. The implication is that what you in the West think of as Wolf Warriors is nothing more than a performance.

What is President Putin’s logic? Historically, since my territory (Ukraine) has offended me and I have found fault with it, then I will take it back legitimately and legally. According to this logic of Putin, then he should return China's territory back to China. At least that's what most Chinese people think. Therefore, Comrade Xi Jinping’s idea of “no limit” cannot be agreed by the Chinese people and comrades within the CCP at all levels. Putin needs to continue to help Xi Jinping to solve this problem. Soon, Putin will visit China again just to solve this problem.

Although it has become increasingly difficult for the United States to assist Ukraine recently, it has also become increasingly difficult for Putin. European countries' aid to Ukraine is better than nothing, but the aid from Iran and North Korea is nothing more than drizzles as well. Both Russia and Ukraine need substantial support to resolve their predicament. There are not many variable factors, so China has become a key piece during this chess game.

If Putin wants to convince the Chinese people and the opposition within the CCP, he may have to shed a lot of blood and make enough compromises. The only compromise he can offer is territory, and nothing else is convincing. Territory occupied under unequal treaties and without treaties are bargaining chips. But Putin also has his own difficulties. Returning the territory may damage his heroic image of defending the territory, and he will lose points during the election. It depends on his choice.

Xi Jinping has been in trouble at home and abroad recently, and regaining territory will be beneficial to him in maintaining his authoritarian status. According to the CCP’s tradition of compromising with the Soviet Union and Russia, does Xi Jinping have the courage? I'm not optimistic.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-091320231000634.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2024/WeiJS240214onRussiaChina.mp3

Related screenshot of Wei Jingsheng’s commentary on RFA website:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2024/newsletters2024-1/WeiJSonRussiaChina240215RFApage.jpg

(Written and recorded on February 14, 2024. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on February 15, 2024.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1636-W1192

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1636-W1192

Release Date: February 17, 2024

发布日：2024年2月17日

Topic: Is Russia a Good Friend of Xi Jinping? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：俄罗斯是习近平的好朋友吗？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2024/report2024-2/WeiJS240217onRussiaChinaA1636-W1192.htm

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俄罗斯是习近平的好朋友吗？

-- 魏京生

两年多前，习近平为了奥运会热情接待了俄罗斯总统普京。兴奋之余说什么两国“合作无上限”，成了国际政治的一个经典表达。这个词儿流行了很久，有时候带有讽刺意味。最近普京总统在和美国记者的访问中，毫不留情地表达了讽刺和调侃的心情。

普京说中共的外交是保守的，习惯于妥协的政策。这和近年来西方观察到的战狼外交正好相反。他进一步带着讽刺地调侃说，中国才是西方最大的威胁，而不是俄罗斯。中国的体量是俄罗斯的十倍，而且经济实力雄厚。他公开挑拨离间，看不起合作无上限的小习同志。

为什么有这么大的仇恨呢？因为小习同志给了“合作无上限”的保证之后，普京才发动了乌克兰战争。可是发动了之后，“合作无上限”就好像没有过一样。习近平乖乖地遵守了西方的制裁和限制，没有给普京提供武器和弹药。他仅仅低价购买了大量的石油和天然气，算是发了一笔战争财。其合作姿态不超过印度，甚至低于伊朗和朝鲜等国。

且不说西方的所谓制裁不过是个漏勺，俄罗斯的经济不但没被制裁垮掉，反而有着正常的发展速度。单说这个普京所期望的“合作无上限”，不就是个大忽悠吗？最近中国的银行也不再帮助俄罗斯外贸洗钱了，普京的忍耐也到了极限。于是就借着美国记者采访冷嘲热讽，克制地表达了不满。

普京希望的无上限合作为什么没有了呢？不是习总书记不想给，是中国和中共内部的舆论都不想给。从种种迹象看，小习确实做了不少的努力，可是最终还是拗不过绝大多数中国人的心理障碍。为什么呢？

历史上的苏联和俄罗斯帝国，通过不平等条约侵占了中国三百多万平方公里的领土。二次大战之后，所有的盟国都废除了不平等条约，归还了领土和权益。只有中国共产党的盟国苏联，口头答应归还领土，实际上利用毛泽东建国初期的困境，划走了外蒙古的一百多万平方公里领土。继而利用江泽民和邓小平的软弱和妥协的外交，反而确定了非法侵占领土的合法性，签订了边界条约。所以普京先生笑话中共的外交是妥协外交。言外之意，你们西方以为的战狼不过是表演而已。

普京总统的逻辑是什么呢？历史上是我的领土既然招惹了我，让我找到了毛病，那我就合理合法地要收回。按照普京的逻辑，那你应该归还中国的领土呀。至少大部分中国人是这样想的。所以小习同志的无上限，上上下下的国人和党内同志们也不同意。这个难题普京需要继续帮助习近平来摆平。近期普京还要到中国访问，就是想解决这个难题。

虽然最近美国援助乌克兰变得越来越困难，但是普京也越来越困难。欧洲各国对乌克兰的援助聊胜于无，可伊朗、朝鲜的援助也不过是毛毛雨。俄乌双方解决困境都需要大幅度的后援，可变因素不多，中国就成了关键的棋子。

普京要想说服中国人民和中共党内反对派，恐怕必须大出血，给出足够的妥协。他能给出的妥协就是领土，其它都没有说服力。根据不平等条约和没有条约侵占的领土，都是谈判的筹码。但是普京也有自己的困难，归还领土可能有损他保卫领土的英雄形象，选举时会丢分。这就要看他的取舍了。

习近平最近内外交困，收回领土对他维持独裁统治地位有利。按照习惯于对苏俄妥协的中共传统，习近平有这个魄力吗？我不看好。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来相关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

评论的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-091320231000634.html