Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1661-W1200

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1661-W1200

Release Date: May 6, 2024

发布日：2024年5月6日

Topic: The Opportunity Period Xi Jinping Needs -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平需要的机遇期 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

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The Opportunity Period Xi Jinping Needs

-- Wei Jingsheng

The war on terrorism launched by President George W. Bush was called a ten-year period of opportunity by the think tanks of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). In fact, it was not just ten years, but until a few years ago when the United States withdrew its troops from Afghanistan and listed Communist China as the biggest threat. This was very unfavorable for Xi Jinping, who has made military unification of Taiwan a strategic focus. Is it possible to create another ten-year period of opportunity? This is an issue his strategists are grappling with.

Putin wants to solve the issue in Ukraine, but he lacks strength. So Xi saw an opportunity and gave Putin the support he needed. Unfortunately, the Russo-Ukrainian war did not force the United States to enter the war as expected, and it failed to achieve its purpose of diverting attention and war resources. Without effects like those in Afghanistan, there will be no new period of opportunity.

Thus, Hamas, supported by Iran, provoked a war with Israel, and the chaos in the Middle East took a new turn. If oil exports that threaten the Middle East can be expanded, it should divert U.S. attention and resources. Unfortunately, Iran and Hamas were not strong enough, and the possible expansion of the war was quickly put out.

The Iranian generals who tried to instigate Lebanon and Syria to join the war group were killed. Iran's retaliation was defeated by the United States and surrounding Arab allies. Iran withdrew after knowing that they were not capable opponents. They hope to replicate the successful anti-war movement of the Vietnam War era which helped the Vietnamese Communist Party to eliminate the Republic of Vietnam. But times have changed, and the U.S. government and people are no longer easily to be deceived. Seeing that the chaos in the Middle East is about to subside, President Xi is unwilling to give in.

So Xi Jinping dropped a heavyweight chess piece -- by bringing unity between the Palestinian government and Hamas, he hopes that Hamas could come back to life and even expand the war to other neighboring countries. Just imagine, how can the unity of the Palestinian government and Hamas be conducive to regional peace? The only result is to expand Hamas to the whole Palestine region. Like the old Chinese saying: the minds of Sima Zhao are very clear.

If this heavyweight chess piece succeeds, the chaos in the Middle East will be reactivated to live. The U.S.-Arab Alliance may collapse. The United States will have to devote more attention and resources to oil and Israel, thus relaxing the focus and pressure on Communist China in East Asia, just like the ten-year period of opportunity during the War on Terror, giving Xi Jinping a new ten-year period of opportunity that he needs.

During the last period of opportunity, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao developed China's economy. What does Xi Jinping need to do during a period of opportunity? Continue to develop the Chinese economy? This is not what he needs. Increasing internal suppression and military unification of Taiwan are the most important goals in his plan.

It is impossible for the United States to invest forces in three battlefields at the same time. Thus there will be little or no resistance to Xi Jinping's military reunification of Taiwan. The effect of capturing Taiwan is to establish hegemony and internal authority in Asia. From Japan to Southeast Asia, all will surrender at the feet of the Chinese Communist Party. Sea routes from Asia to the United States will also be controlled by the Chinese Communist Party.

Successfully reunifying Taiwan by force will rapidly enhance Xi Jinping's internal authority, just like Deng Xiaoping's war against Vietnam. Xi Jinping is suffering from rising opposition within the officialdom and among the people, and his dominance is in jeopardy. The first thing to do after his authority is strengthened would be to further cleanse the officialdom and eliminate the crisis of coup. This was also the secret of Deng Xiaoping's success back then.

His second step at the same time would be to expand the attack on the forces of dissatisfaction among the people. It will be expanded from the suppression of dissidents to the so-called neutral dissemination of ideological and cultural intellectual circles. From the film and television industry to archaeology, all intellectual and cultural activities must revolve around the CCP's narrative. This is an ideal that Xi Jinping has been pursuing since he came to power, but has not been very successful.

Xi Jinping has always regretted that he did not achieve the rule of the country like Mao Zedong. Strictly purge the officialdom, eliminate and suppress all disobedient officials, and reset the official structure, can only be done after strengthening his authority. Purging the cultural and intellectual circles, even reducing and eliminating the group of stubborn intellectual elites, and elevating the status of group of sycophant literati in order to vigorously carry out the god-making movement are practices that everyone has already seen.

All this depends on Xi Jinping's success in getting a second period of opportunity, and on the success of Iran and Hamas.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-05062024101536.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2024/WeiJS240505onXiJPneeds.mp3

Related screenshot of Wei Jingsheng’s commentary on RFA website:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2024/newsletters2024-2/WeiJSonXiJPneeds240506RFApage.jpg

(Written on May 4 and recorded on May 5, 2024. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on May 6, 2024.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1661-W1200

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1661-W1200

Release Date: May 6, 2024

发布日：2024年5月6日

Topic: The Opportunity Period Xi Jinping Needs -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：习近平需要的机遇期 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2024/report2024-5/WeiJS240506onXiJPneedsA1661-W1200.htm

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习近平需要的机遇期

-- 魏京生

小布什总统发动的反恐战争，被中共的智囊们称为十年机遇期。其实不只十年，而是最近几年美国才从阿富汗撤军，并把共产中国列为最大的威胁。这对于把武统台湾作为战略重心的习近平来说，十分不利。有没有可能再制造一个十年机遇期呢？这是策略师们苦苦思考的问题。

普京想解决乌克兰的问题，苦于力量不够。于是小习看到了机会，给了普京需要的支持。可惜俄乌战争没有像预想的那样逼迫美国进场，达不到转移注意力和战争资源的目的。没有像阿富汗那样的效果，也就没有新的机遇期。

于是伊朗支持的哈马斯挑起了和以色列的战争，中东的乱局出现了新的转机。如果能够扩大威胁到中东的石油输出，应该能够转移美国的注意力和资源。可惜伊朗和哈马斯也不够给力，可能扩大的战火被迅速扑灭。

企图策动黎巴嫩和叙利亚加入战团的伊朗将军被团灭，伊朗的报复被美国和周边的阿拉伯盟友联合击败，知道不是对手后伊朗体面地撤出。他们希望复制越战时代成功的反战运动，帮助越南共产党消灭越南共和国的成功范例。可是时过境迁，美国政府和人民不再容易忽悠了。眼看中东乱局将要平息了，习总不甘心。

于是小习落下一枚重量级棋子，撮合巴勒斯坦政府和哈马斯的团结，希望哈马斯能起死回生，甚至将战火扩大到其它周边国家。试想，巴勒斯坦政府和哈马斯团结，怎么会有利于地区的和平呢？只能是将哈马斯扩大到整个巴勒斯坦。司马昭之心，昭然若揭。

如果这一枚重量级棋子成功了，中东的乱局就做活了。美国的阿拉伯联盟就可能破局。美国为了石油和以色列将不得不投入更多的关注和资源。放松对东亚共产中国的关注和压力，就像反恐战争时期的十年机遇期一样，给习近平一个新的、他需要的十年机遇期。

上一个机遇期，江泽民和胡锦涛发展了中国的经济。习近平需要机遇期干什么呢？继续发展经济吗？这不是他需要的，加大镇压内部和武统台湾，才是他计划上最重要的目标。

美国不可能在三个战场同时投入力量。习近平武统台湾的阻力就没有了。拿下台湾的效果，就是确立了在亚洲的霸权和内部的权威。从日本到东南亚将会臣服在中共的脚下。从亚洲到美国的海上航线也将被中共控制。

成功武统台湾，将会像邓小平打越南一样，迅速增强习近平的内部权威。习近平正苦于内部官场和民间反对的情绪不断高涨，统治地位岌岌可危。权威增强之后的第一件事情，就是进一步清洗官场，解除政变的危机。这也是当年邓小平的成功秘诀。

同时进行的第二步，就是扩大对民间不满势力的打击。从镇压异议份子扩大到所谓中性传播思想文化的知识界。从影视界到考古学，所有的知识文化活动都必须围绕着党的叙述。这是习近平执政以来一直在做，但一直不太成功的理想。

习近平一直很遗憾他没有达到毛太祖那样的一统天下。严厉整肃官场，消灭和压制一切不听话的官员，重新设置官场结构，只能在加强了权威之后才能下手。整肃文化知识界，甚至下放和消灭一批顽固不化的知识精英，抬高一批马屁文人地位，以便大力开展造神运动，这是大家已经看到的作法。

这一切都有待于习近平成功得到第二个机遇期，有待于伊朗和哈马斯的成功。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来相关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

评论的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-05062024101536.html