Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1662-W1201

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1662-W1201

Release Date: May 18, 2024

发布日：2024年5月18日

Topic: Putin and Xi Jinping Each Gets What They Need -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：普京和习近平各取所需 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Putin and Xi Jinping Each Gets What They Need

-- Wei Jingsheng

After Vladimir Putin won his re-election, the first person he visited was Xi Jinping. This shows that he urgently needs Xi Jinping's help, for the needs of both of his face and essentials. At this critical moment of struggles between Putin and the United States, whoever takes action first will win the final victory.

On the front line of the Ukrainian war, it seems that the Russian army has made some progress. But it is still a little short of reversing the stalemate on the battlefield. As the following-up assistance from the United States and Europe will arrive soon, it is difficult to say whether the situation on the battlefield can be reversed. It is Putin’s important strategy to show that he can get assistance from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), to offset the assistance that Ukraine received from Europe, the United States and NATO, thus to undermine the confidence of his opponents. This is called saving his face.

With continued assistance from the United States and Europe, the war will continue for a long time. In terms of financial and logistical resources, Russia cannot match the strength of Europe and the United States. If the consumption continues, there will be a day when Russia cannot support it. This is the day when the United States' strategic goal of weakening Russia is achieved. Russia alone may not be able to support itself – it will run out of ammunition and food before the United States and Europe lose their patience.

What Is To Be Done? This is the title of the book by Nikolay Chernyshevsky that Putin brought to Xi Jinping, and it is also the core issue he wants to discuss with Xi Jinping. With China's economic size, it will not be a problem to help Russia go over the difficulties. However, China's own economy is experiencing a slump. If it attracts sanctions from the United States, it will be even worse. Xi Jinping wanted to help, but officials at all levels refused to agree, and things still couldn't be done.

If Xi does not help, Putin can only accept the peace talk conditions set by the United States without fear of embarrassment, withdraw from the occupied territories, and reconcile with the West. What will happen to Russia like this? Will Russia continue to embrace Xi Jinping, the panda? I am afraid not. On the contrary, that they will hate Xi Jinping for deceiving Putin. Judging from the fact that Putin has the support of the vast majority of Russians, it would be offending the entire Russian nation.

It doesn't matter if Xi offends a president, but if he offends a nation state, the problem becomes serious. When turning an enemy into a friend failed, he may instead have added a potential enemy. The plan to reunify Taiwan by force would come to nothing. Plans to enhance his prestige and consolidate dominance are about to come to nothing. Therefore, Xi Jinping is in a dilemma this time.

Putin also is unwilling to fail and is making a last-ditch effort. Losing the territory occupied in the west and losing the territory in the east have different values in the eyes of the people. He is making a deal with Xi Jinping on this, with joint development, cooperative national defense, etc. which are all acceptable concessions. Whether the conditions given can be accepted by the top leaders of the CCP is exactly the homework to be done during this visit.

Top Chinese officials may be debating whether it is worthwhile to accept Putin's concessions and incur further U.S. sanctions. If it is not cost-effective, they must give up Russia as a quasi-ally, give up the plan to unify Taiwan by force, and maintain economic exchanges with the United States to solve the economic crisis facing the CCP right now.

If the Wolf Warriors think it is cost-effective and get support from Xi Jinping to make a decision, they will surely be subject to further sanctions from the United States. China's economy would be even worse, and Xi's status may not be guaranteed. The hardships of the common Chinese would also become worse. How much help can be given to Putin with such economic conditions? I am not optimistic.

I have noticed that the benefits Putin has given to China over the past few years, such as cooperative development, oil pipelines, etc., can all be withdrawn at any time. While it is given today, it may be taken back tomorrow, as the control lies in the hands of Russia. The two countries have similar traditions when it comes to talking without counting. The benefits China received may not be reliable benefits, while real money was handed out.

Once severely sanctioned by the United States, the Chinese economy would decline further. Then China will be unable to pay large sums of money to Russia, thus resulting in the Russians considering it as another big deception, and a big deception at a critical moment of its life and death. This is really critical like taking their lives. Isn’t this spending money to attract hatred? It can be considered Xi Jinping and Putin are helping each other yet each getting what they need is just a beautiful dream – a dream that is impossible to realize.

(This English version is translated by Ciping HUANG, without any compensation. Wei Jingsheng and the Wei Jingsheng Foundation appreciate her decades of contribution, especially for allowing the use and distribution of her translations of these commentaries.)

Original link of this commentary:

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-05172024085002.html

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2024/WeiJS240516onXiJP&Putin.mp3

Related screenshot of Wei Jingsheng’s commentary on RFA website:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2024/newsletters2024-2/WeiJSonXiJP&Putin240517RFApage.jpg

(Written and recorded on May 16, 2024. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia on May 17, 2024.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article: A1662-W1201

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A1662-W1201

Release Date: May 18, 2024

发布日：2024年5月18日

Topic: Putin and Xi Jinping Each Gets What They Need -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：普京和习近平各取所需 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问：

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2024/report2024-5/WeiJS240518onXiJP&PutinA1662-W1201.htm

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普京和习近平各取所需

-- 魏京生

普京获得了他的连任之后，第一个访问的就是习近平。这说明他非常急迫地需要习近平的帮助。面子、里子都需要。这是他和美国掰手腕的关键时刻，谁占了先手谁就能得到最后的胜利。

乌克兰战争的前线，看似俄军获得了一些进展，但距离扭转战场僵持的形式，还差那么一点儿。美国和欧洲的后续援助很快就要到货，战场局势能不能逆转还很难说。为了显示能够得到中共的援助，抵消欧美北约的援助，打击对手的信心，是他的重要策略。这就是所谓的面子。

在美国和欧洲的持续援助之下，战争会长期延续下去。从财政和后勤资源上看，俄罗斯比不上欧美的实力。那么消耗持续下去，俄罗斯会有支持不住的一天。这就是美国削弱俄国的战略目标达到的一天。单靠俄罗斯自己，恐怕不太可能支持到美国、欧洲失去耐心的时候，自己就先弹尽粮绝了。

怎么办？这就是普京带给习近平的礼物的书名，也是他要和小习商讨的核心问题。以中国的经济体量，帮助俄罗斯度过难关不成问题。可是中国自己的经济正遇到不景气，如果招来美国的制裁，将会是雪上加霜。习近平想帮，各级官员们也不答应，事情还是办不成。

如果不帮，普京只能不怕丢脸，接受美国设定的和谈条件，退出侵占的领土与西方和解。这样的俄罗斯会怎么样呢？会继续拥抱熊猫习近平吗？恐怕正好相反，会痛恨习近平忽悠了普京。以普京得到绝大多数俄国人民的支持来看，这就是得罪了整个俄罗斯民族。

得罪一个总统没关系，得罪一个民族国家，问题就严重了。化敌为友不成，反倒增加一个潜在的敌人，武统台湾的计划眼看着就要落空。增强威信、巩固统治地位的计划，眼看着也要落空。因此习近平这次是进退两难了。

普京也是不甘心失败，在做最后的努力。丢掉西部占领的领土，和丢掉东方的领土，在民众看来价值不同。可以就此和习近平做交易。什么共同开发呀，合作国防呀等等都是可以接受的让步。给出的条件能否被中共高层所接受，正是这次访问要做的功课。

中共的高层官员们可能正在辩论，接受普京的让步和招致美国的进一步制裁，是否合算。不合算，就必须放弃俄罗斯这个准盟友，放弃武统台湾的计划，维持和美国的经济往来，解决中共眼前的经济危机。

如果战狼派认为合算，并且得到小习的支持成为决策，必将受到美国进一步的制裁。中国经济更加雪上加霜，小习的地位可能不保。老百姓的苦日子也是雪上加霜，更进一步。这样的经济状况，能给普京多大的帮助呢？不乐观。

我注意到，几年来普京给出的好处，例如合作开发呀，石油管道呀等等，都是随时可以收回的。今天给你，明天也可能收回，控制权都在人家俄罗斯手里。在说话可以不算数的方面，两国的传统差不多。中国得到的好处不是可靠的好处，给出去的可是真金白银。

一旦遭到美国的严厉制裁，经济进一步下滑，没有能力向俄国支付大笔经费的时候，俄罗斯人可是会理解为又一次大忽悠，而且是在生死存亡的重要关头的大忽悠。这就是要人命呐。这不是花钱招人恨嘛。可见习近平和普京的互相帮助，各取所需只是个美好的梦想。不可能成功。

(本评论的英文版本由黄慈萍翻译。魏京生和魏京生基金会感谢她数十年来相关的无偿贡献，特别是使用和发布此译文的许可。)

评论的原始链接：

https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/pinglun/weijingsheng/wjs-05172024085002.html